Friday 3 March 2017

New website.

Hope you all like the new website.

http://www.theaspiringhorseplayer.com

Friday 24 February 2017

New website..

http://www.theaspiringhorseplayer.com/                                          

Thursday 23 February 2017

Live

I feel Retrieve is the bet of the day. This deserves a decent bet.

Wolverhampton

17.50
Hot Lick 78
Everdina 77
Baileys Apprentice 74

Thursday Review.

Sedgefield there are quite a few short priced fancies on the ratings. I am disappointed Make Me a Fortune is a Non starter I was going to put a case forward for this one.
In the 16.30 I was rather mystified with the ride Ross Chapman gave this horse, this has rather skewed the ratings, this horse is clearly better, Ross thought he was riding Pegasus. The jockey got 10 day's make of that as you will. I would not be surprised if he won.

In the first race Baraboy is top rated, I would swerve that in all honesty I do not think it will win the race. He may trade well though at the odds. A safer option could be 2nd rated Stiloblue Native, there are easier races.

15.20 Pipe has had a torrid time here with his runners over the last couple of seasons, however digging deeper his horses have run well here. This really should win this race today.

15.55 Chakisto again is short priced I do not really want to back this or oppose it. I have not much interest in the race.

14.30 I discussed briefly a little this race above, the ratings point towards Kauto Riko however Bell Weir must figure if he ridden with an ounce of belief. Again I will be happy to watch the race.

Huntingdon

This looks a better meeting to work with... Desert Queen blitzed them last time, the same tactics here will see her being really difficult to contain. She is worth a win bet today.

To go with her I like Crieve Hill. I am hopeful Glaring may need this and be just short of full fitness. This leaves us to beat Sir Anthony Browne. I will take that chance @ the odds.



Desert Queen
Crieve Hill    




Wednesday 22 February 2017

23.2.17

Sedgefield

14.10
Baraboy 116
Stiloblue Native 115
Dark n dangerous 110

14.45
On The Road 143
Whitsunday's 128
Coole Charmer 119

15.20
Mr Clarkson 149
Louis Vac Pouch 138
Crackdle 136

15.55
Chakisto 130
Bandol 109
Oak Vintage 102

16.30
Kauto Riko 134
Oliver's Gold 129
Tomkevi 113

17.05
Bannys Lad 112
Alchemix 111
King of Dark 109


Huntingdon

13.30
Red Admiral 115
Overrawed 107
Arden Denis 103

14.00
Crievehill 151
Sir Anthony Browne 140
Glaring 132

14.35
L.T.The Man 136
Lady Longshot 133
Solstalla 130

15.10
Desert Queen 167
Actinpieces 166
Antarctica De Thaix 164

15.45
King Of Glory 138
Ballycoe 125
Eaton Rock 125

16.55
Boagruis 134
Classic Tune 122
Royal Village 120

Chelmsford

13.50
Pearl Noir 77
Topsoil 75
Mighty Zip 71

14.20
Toy Theatre 86
Dust Bin 83
Moondust 81

14.55
Byres Road 116
Sands Chorus 112
London 107

15.30
Cappanity Con 102
Zamjar 100
Alkashaf 99

16.05
Red Alert 81
Alfonso 79
Basheer 76

16.40
Veena 100
Kashtan 97
Saved My Bacon 94

17.15
Mamoo 74
Percy Veerence 73
Jazri 66






































Lingfield and Kempton..

14.20
Welsh Inlet 87
M.Muscari 84
Lucky Louie 80

14.55
Saint Honore 94
Tempuran 92
B Du Chatelet. 86

15.25
Shankara 88
Bishops Cannings 82
Utopian Dream 79

15.55
Havelock 77
Mitigate 74
Arctic Sea 73

16.30
D. Ends 74
MoneyorYlife 73
Maori Bob 59

17.05
Synotic 59
Outlaw Torn 47
SunshineNB. 46

Kempton
17.45
Chandrayaan 79
Moohoob 71
Lutine Charlie 66

18.15
Balashaleh 67
Alabaster 64
Astrostorm 45

18.45
Included 94
Askari 81
Langlauf 81

19.15
Steelriver 116
Oriental R 106
Under Seige 102

19.45
Winterlube 123
Intense T 108
First M 107

20.15
Newtons Cross 76
Barncle 74
Night G 73

















Tuesday 21 February 2017

15.45 Doncaster Seventh Sky

Seventh Sky.

15.45 This looks very competitive. Saint Are will likely go off favourite here after his Becher chase run. I cannot quite understand why he is favourite really, he has not done much really. Everything really is hinged on a repeat bid to retain this race he won last year.
That moves us onto the next in the betting Ericht, a few days after Saint Are won this race, Ericht won a race @ Kempton. In my eyes the form does not amount to much, it is though winning form and thus must be respected.
Seventh Sky has some good form in the book this is a horse to beat here if he has a going day.He will handle this ground better than most here, if this runs to his ability here he will go extremely well.
This is a risky proposition with his profile, but he has the figures to run a good race.
Court By Surprise was actually my pick for this race until I spotted he is 0-11 on Good ground.This horse has one piece of form from November 2016. The horse hit 1.07 in running @ Sandown beating Saint Are in the process 4 and a half lengths.

22.2.17

Doncaster.

14.10
Apasionado 141
Mister Whitaker 139
Charming Zen 123

14.45
Timoteo 151
Soldier in Action148
Diablo De Sivola 141

15.15
Some Kinda Lama 148
The Tailgater 144
Muthabir 143

15.45

Court by surprise 156
Ericht 151
Seventh Sky 151

Ludlow

14.00
Ridgeway Flyer 155
Bobo Mac 142
Royal Reserve 138

14.35
Wade Harper 139
Deadly Approach 138
Mercian King 137

15.35
W Money 151
Ambler Gambler 134
Better Days 133

16.10
Dino Velvet 145
Stamp Your Feet 137
ApplesandPierres 131

17.20
Calin Du Brizais 139
Theatrebar 138
Miss Tonabezi 136

Punchestown

13.55
Geneva Barracks 141
Knockamaole Boy 139
Agent Boru 135

15.30
Wee Small Hours  126
Rock On Barney 124
Rebel Ace 122

16.00
Miss Eyecatcher 139
Freeway Space 138
Just Janice 134

16.35
Perfect Man 141
Holdontoyourhat 137
Return to Vendor 133




















Elegantly Bound for compensation.

Southwell looks a tricky card today. One horse that is worth a second glance is Elegantly Bound.
This horse has been desperately unlucky to have not shaken off his maiden tag on his last 2 runs at this course he has hit sub 1.1 on both runs. This is very close to making this horse a double winner with no penalties. On his last run in particular he did nothing wrong and kicked for home in the straight only to be caught by the eventual winner Kencumin, the pair were over 4 lengths clear of the 3rd placed horse.
The massive fly in the ointment from an investment point of view is Native Prospect.
We just do not know how this horse will perform here today. Only an insider will know if he will go on Fibresand. I am willing to think that if the selection runs to his level, he can crack this horse on fitness.

Elegantly Bound looks sure today to run his race he should be race fit and this is a win bet here.


15.30 Wetherby

Unzing has to beat the previous course winner here Lightening Rod, my rating's maybe over punish older horses, we will see and going forward I may have to re-evalute this deduction. I vey much respect L.R and I also really like Brian Hughes, he is a top class Jockey.
Unzing was sent off favourite @ Market Rasen on his last outing and run well, he certainly ran well enough to serve it up here. On the ratings he is the horse to beat and I will back this horse today for a win. I will also team him up with Elegantly Bound in an Each way double.

Monday 20 February 2017

Southwell

Southwell

14.10
Too Many Shots 73
Bo Selecta 72
Log Off 70

14.40
Elegantly B 99
Finale 93
Native P 82

15.10
D. Dawn 104
Unnoticed 104
Custard T.D 100

15.40
Lady Nayef 116
Cross F. 113
Captain L 108

16.10
B. Pursuits 84
Wimboldsly 77
V.F Blade 76

16.40
My Rennais 80
R.Lad 80
Go on Gal 79













21.2.17

Wetherby.

14.00
Cafe Au Lait 116
Bohenagore 115
Medal Of Freedom 113

14.30
Aces over Eights 123
Money Maid 122
Mollyanna 109

15.30
Unzing 147
Lightning Rod 141
Chestnit Ben 141

16.00
The Game is a Foot 123
Modulus 115
Buckontupence 113

16.30
Sharney Strike 135
Suzy Music 133
The Drinkymeister. 125

Taunton

14.20
Viking Mistress 114
Gold Bonne Rain 110
Avithos 109

14.50
Drive on Locky 107
Master Burbidge 103
Lakeshore Drive 100

15.20
Cajun Fiddle 155
Verdna Blue 148
Whatduhavetoget135

15.50
Towering 149
Heroes or Ghosts 148
Zastra 145

16.20
Tommy Silver 153
Bertomont 152
Top Tug 145
























Sunday 19 February 2017

Wolverhampton

14.10
Sweep Rock 30 // 6
Miss.M 30 // 5
F.Prince 27 // 4

This is the worst race I have seen for a while.  A race to absolutely avoid.

14.40
War at Sea  78 // 18
Bush House 68 // 14
Born to Reason 53 // 11

15.10
King Oswald 70 // 13
Athassel 64 // 17
Mary Le Bow 64 // 7

Dunquin has a master rating of 59 // 6    This could be a lay to back here.

15.45
Doc Sportello 117 // 31
Bowson Fred 117 // 26
Judicial 114 // 16

16.20
Pushkin M. 77 // 19
Berlois  77 // 16
Tadaawol 69 // 13


16.55
It Must Be Faith 86 // 23
Major Valentine 78 // 15
Spirit Of Wedza 78 //16

17.55
Hochfield 84 // 20
Jumping Jack 82 // 23
Killermont Street 76 // 18



















New layout explained.

The new layout covers the master rating    110 // 18    Then 2nd figure is the back to lay or lay to back figure. The higher the better chance of running well and shortening in play.

20.2.17

Lingfield                  Back and lay Pts

14.20
Champagne Chaser 111 // 25
The Mumpher         106 // 9
Lac Sacre               106 // 20

The Mupher looks a lay to back, 9 is a poor figure.

14.50
Capilla        96 // 19
Clonusker   94 // 24
Tara Mac   90 // 12

Although Tara Mac looks poor on the points. Dalkadam looks even worse with just an 11 and is only rated 84. Look to see what prices are about tomorrow this may be a nice Lay to back.

16.00
Onderun 116 // 22
Amberjam 114 // 23
Kracatoa King  114 // 22


16.35
Groundunderrepair 120 // 20
Not Never 118 // 23
Mansion 116 //17

17.05
Dont Do Mondays 132 // 29
Big Fella Thanks    123 // 26
Take The Mick    114 // 18


Carlisle

14.30
Theatre Act 126 //31                                  
Hartside 126 // 24                                              
Lord Balim 120 // 26

15.00
Calivigny 132 // 25
The Cobbler 130 // 24
Kap Jazz 127 // 22


15.35
Minella Fiveo 127 // 31
Political Quiz 121 // 25
Thyne For Gold 118 // 25

16.10
Beg to Differ 149 // 34
Top wood 145 // 36
Blakemount 142 //32

16.45
Midnight Request 108 // 18
Grand Enterprise 104 // 20
Docktor Glas  100 // 16

Early fave Smoking Dixie looks like a decent lay to back, with just a 14. and a master rating of 94.

Live lay to back trial

Monderon 22
Doubledisdoubledat 17
The mythologist 22
M.Mustang 19

Doubledis looks a lay to back here..

Back to lay trial

15.40 Navan

Rightdown the middle 14pts   That is awful As I have 3 runners @  20+
Dounikos 24 @ the odds looks a decent chance to trade. Emma 21 Futuramic 21 3 runners on 19.

The bet here must be lay to back this favourite. If you are feeling bold you could try Dounikos

Trading Back to lay or just lay.

I am trying out new stuff here these are solely back to lay horses on the strength of the points.. or low points may indicate a lay opportunity. This again is work in progress and seeing what works and what does not work.

I will post up a few races, if it looks any good we may be able to get something going with this. I do feel any horse that is to be backed and then laid off for a profit needs a cutoff price otherwise Risk/Reward is just not viable. Long term if you continually pick short price horses to trade you will end up in the poor house for sure. Find out what minimum price you want or feel you can make money out of the horse.
Often a short price horse can be traded in and out and money made, this is not the case if you want to select multiple horses.  If you want to pair horses together or have multiple selections in a race to trade out you need to be looking for bigger price horses and decent reasons why they may/could trade at shorter odds in running.

Lets focus on 15.20 No other reason than its the next race..

Boutan 27
Midnight Silver 26
Chilli Romance 25
Westerbee 25
Grace Tara  21

At the prices Grace Tara looks a Lay to back.

Sunday

If you fancy a value each way double, punt today Filatore 16.50 Ffos Las and Dounikos 15.40 Navan would fit the bill. This would be a nice return if lady luck is with you today.


A much safer double bet today that has a much better chance of landing.

Holly Bush Harry 15.30 Market Rasen & Pearl Swan in the 15.50 Ffos Las.

Over in Ireland where it is the best racing today I like Ball D'arc, I think this deserves a chance, he is upped in class. This will be the 2nd string to Identity Thief today.
Mentioning Identity Thief, nothing else but a clean jumping display here would do, he has looked dodgy, however a mark of his class is this, If this were a hurdle race he would be giving Ball D'arc well over a stone.
If he jumps cleanly today he will take a world of beating and likely win this race.


15.40 I fancy Dounikos as a Back to lay today. He looked a bit Soft last time, but maybe now less fancied he may just outrun his pricetag today.

16.10 Accapella and Haymount may give this fave plenty of problems here. I would not lay this fave, I also would not bet this at the odds.

16.40 A nasty race to get involved in. If I bet I would go absolute minimum on something at a price, I like Tabhachtach, although in all honesty this is a race to swerve.



Ffos Lass

15.50
Pearl Swan is a win bet for me. This won with minimum fuss last time out an will surely with a clean round be a player here. This in my eyes has a great chance today.








Saturday 18 February 2017

19.2.16

Ffos Las

14.20
Aintree My Dream 136
West Torr   124
Going For Broke 120

14.50
Rock on Rocky 127
Dr Robin 122
Keep Moving 121

15.20
Boutan 119
Midnight Silver 116
Grace Tara 110

15.50
Pearl Swan 147
Little John 137
Horatio Hornblower 136

16.50
Try It Sometime 104
Asokastar 98
Filatore 95

Market Rasen

14.30
Mo Chailin 110
Martha McCandles109
Appletree Lane 101

15.00
Caius Marcius 136
Dream Berry 133
Castafiore 133

15.30
Holly Bush Henry 149
Speredek 140
Prairie Town 134

16.00
Make Me A Fortune 110
Fields Of Glory 109
Little Jimmy 108

16.30
Monderon 110
Dobledisdoubledat 103
Midnight Mustang 98


Navan

14.40
Ball Darc 158
Tully East 155
Ballyoisin 152

15.10
Sutton Place 163
Renetti 161
Dedigout 159

15.40
Dounikos 133
Nicole's Milan 129
Kikashen 128

16.10
Accapella Bourgeois 161
Haymount 157
Anibale Fly 154

16.40
Holeinthewallbar 120
Tabhachtach 119
Admiral Brian 117





































Rating Value Bets

With these bets you will have losing runs, however the goal here would be to snag a good price value bet. Therefore the theory is over time we may be hopeful we show a profit. Or these could be traded in running to make a profit.

BOG odds or bigger on betfair.

A few from Ascot there are more of course on the ratings

O'Faolins Boy 10/1   Divine Spear 12/1 Royal Regatta 9/1 Theatre Goer 16/1


A few from Haydock

Final Choice 11/1  Vincente 10/1

A few from Wincanton

Spice Fair 11/1  Somerset Gem 9/1


Good luck today with all bets.

Let us hope all horses return safe and sound today. Enjoy the weekend. Thanks for reading.

Astre may be shining bright at Wincanton.

The horse that I am most keen on today is ASTRE DE LA COUR 15.55 Wincanton. I tipped this horse last run and he ran an absolute belter, he hit 1.1 in running and was run down by Baby King. Today the ground is not as punishing although it will still need to be got through. Maybe if the ground was not hock deep last time he may not have been caught. This for me is a really good win bet today.


Vincente 15.15 Haydock. I am unsure why I like this horse today. That hardly instils any kind of confidence, also Blaklion is one of my very favourite horses in training, he is not that big, but his heart is massive. I am sorry I just cannot give a valid reason why Vincente should be bet today, it is just that nagging gut feeling he will run a good race today, that obviously is no reason to bet Vincente. I personally will bet this horse today. Blaklion can save his very best for a good festival run.


Cue Card runs today and obviously we do not want to take this horse on. I want him to win, he is such a super horse. It is interesting when I rated these up that Royal Regatta came in joint rated I was a little shocked in truth, I think it must be my ratings do tend to penalise older horses, we just want all the horses returning safe and sound today.

Friday 17 February 2017

18.2.17

Ascot

13.15
Beyond Conceit 150
Top of The game 142

........................3 runners 147  (Aunty Lass. Tintern T. Criq Rock.)   Top 2 only......................13.50
13.50
Arpege D Alene 167
Label D O 156
Fletchers F 154

14.25
Chef D'Oeuvre 166
T Nivernais 164
O Faolains Boy 162

15.00
Divine Spear 152
M.O,Plenty 147
Orbo Ad Chao 143

15.35
Cue Card 174
Royal Regatta 174
Irish Cavalier 169

16.10
Desert Sensation 146
F.George 126
Theatre Goer 125


Wincanton

13.40
F.Climate 118
Castarnie 117
B.Narcissus 116

14.15
B.Court 156
T,F Prince 149
D.F.King 129

14.45
Yanworth 179
Sceaux Royal 173
Ch'Tibell 162


15.20
Midnight Sapphire 128
Persian Delight 123
Spice Fair 122

15.55
Gardefort 150
Pain Au Choc 143
Astre De Le Cour 142

16.30
Periquest 118
Rainbow Haze 115
Somerset Gem 113

Haydock

13.30
Most Celebrated 131
Don Bersy 129
Final Choice 129

14.05
Agrapart 158
Aux Ptits Soins 156
Zarkander 155

14.40
Nordic Nymph 140
Mydor 136
Dads in Trouble 135
Big River 135

15.15
Goodtoknow 170
Black Lion 169
Vicente 168

15.50

No Hasslehoff 150
Theligny 147
R.T.B 142

16.20
Captain Redbeard 161
Wuff 158
Tanit River 155






















Wolverhampton

17.45

Hidden Gem 72
Wink Oliver 64
Fossa 58

18.45

Fair play 99
Vonsne. R 93
Marshall Aid 82

19.15

Flying Hope 74
Zandradee 68
Not Now N. 61

19.45

Fear the Fury 87
Blaze of Glory 83
Killermont Street 78


20.15

Rowlestone Lass 88
Heartstone 70
Taurian 69

Dundalk

Dundalk

17.30

Zippy 76* Caution Turf Rating do not use.
........
Red All Star 65
Arlecchinos Rock 65
Guiding Star 64


Zippy cannot be eliminated or backed. For results he will, if he wins will be logged as a loss.

18.30

Purple Party 65
Mosman 62
Tennesee Watz 60
Manorov 60

19.00

Voyageofdiscovery 68
Free State 62
No Way Jack 60

20.00

Gentleman 104
Northern Surprise 96
Shepherds Purse 94


21.00

Song Of Love 111.
Udogo 96
Specific Gravity 94
























Thursday 16 February 2017

17.2.17

Sandown

13.40

Centurius 132 Sft
Master Village 120 G/s
Cleni Wells 119 G/s

14.10

Dream Bolt 152 Sft
Icing On The Cake 151 G/s
Pougne Bobbi 149 Sft

14.40

Colins Sister 139 Sft
Kelka 133 G/s
Happy Diva 131 G/s
Theatre T 131 G/s

15.15

Rathlin Rose 136
Renard     136
Cody Wyoming 123

15.45

Percy Street 111 G/s
Early De Lemo 103 Sft
Gregarious 93 Hy

16.15

Pete The Feat 148 Sft
Cogry 135 Sft
Twenty Eight Guns 133 Sft


16.45

Trans Express 124 Sft
Wicked Willy  122 G/s
Justification 119 Yielding.


Fakenham

13.30

Great Link 106 G/s
Lake Chapala 97 Sft
Akula 88 Sft

14.00
Omessa Has 140 Sft
Mr Mix 138 Sft Hurdle Form
Price Of Steal 136 Soft

14.30

S. Magic 130 G/s
Chalco D L 126 G/s
The M Don 122 G/s

15.00

Vicangelome 143 Soft
Racktiman 133 G/s
AtailofIntrigue 125 G/s


15.35

Petite Power 136 G/s
Movie Legend 120 G/s
Popelys Gull 106 G/s Hurdle

16.05

Warden Hill 138 Gd
Vasco De Mee 124 Gd
Wild Bill 115 Sft


Newcastle

14.20

Spirit Of Hayton 84
Saxon Flames 80
Bowban 80


14.50

Sutter County 114
Merry Banter *TURF* CAUTION. Should not be used for AW. 109*
Dazacam 99
Marquee Club 87

15.25

Petite Jack 105
Mistiroc *TURF* CAUTION. Should not be used for AW. 101*
Sennockian Star 100
Euchen Glen *TURF* CAUTION. Should not be used for AW.  100*
John Reel. 94

Unfortunately we have Turf raiders and this skews the ratings. Turf winners will count as a loss on the results.
They are however very dangerous if they take to this surface. Please do not use the Turf rating it is unreliable.


15.55

Clondaw Banker NO RATING ??
.................................................
Rasasee 76
Sugarloaf Mountain 70
Casablanca 66


16.25

High On Light 96
Mariee 89
Footlight 88


16.55

Byres Road 95
Worlds His Oyster91
Eastern Dragon 89

17.25

Fairway To Heaven 85
Bucaneers Vault 83
Fujin 79




























Stats for 1st 3 in ratings

Early days and still refining the ratings however I can say from 39 selections, the top 3 in the ratings have hit a whopping 79.4% of the winners. This does not include the lovely winner we have just had that was clear top rated Duke Street. As from tomorrow I will only list the top 3 rated horses. This should snag the winner over 7 times in 10. After tonights results we are working @ over 80% now 8/10. I am sure this will level out, however I am very happy with these figures.

Chelmsford

19.00

Silver Quay 90
Aldrath 87
Duke Street 95
Cotton Club 87

19.30

Outer Space 95
Evening Attire 92
Plucky Dip 90
Loyalty 89
Curzon Line 88

20.00

Mr Potter 63
Rosie Crow 65
Turaathy 53
Limerick Lord 52

20.30

Willygolassiego 53
Kay Sera 55
Oystercard 56

Wednesday 15 February 2017

16.2.17 Splitsecond Ratings

Kelso.

All figures achieved on Heavy unless specified.

13.25                                                                    

Lycidas 116          
Reivers Lad 110
Al Reesha 39. 123 Good.
Paper Roses 95 G/soft.

If Al Reesha goes through this ground this must be dangerous, but 39 in the ground looks suspect. Lycidas has the CD form and will go through this ground.
13.55

Taking Risks 139. 125 Hurdle.
Vicenzo Mio 136 Soft. Hurdle.
Spanish Fleet 133
Hawkhurst 122 Hurdle.

Taking Risks is no Value, but he is the one to beat.

14.25

Cyrus Darius 135 Soft.
Born Survivor 127
One for Harry 135
Knockara Beau 127

One for Harry may be a bit of value turning over the top 2 in the betting here.

15.35

Rowdy Rocher 111
Maxie T 118
Rhymers Stone 120
Forty Crown 113
Landecker 112
Top Billing 107

This looks very tight maybe Rhymers Stone could run a decent race

Leicester.

14.05

Edgar 108 G/s
Triple Chief 103 Soft
Brinestone 92
Barton Rose 100 Gd
Agreement 69
Elkstone 96

Edgar has the figures if he can run up to them and looks on paper the horse to beat.

14.35

Storming Strumpet 126 Gd
Texas Forever 101 Soft
Frankie Ballou 96 Soft
Crown Hill 113 G/s
Today Please 114 Gd Hurdle.
Hahnenkam  113 Gd

If Storming Strumpet can go through this ground this would look like a decent favourite here and certainly the one to beat.

15.10

Mad J M. 149
Mercian P. 135
Crosspark 140 Sft.
Always OTR 144 Gd
Dark F 144 Gd
Doomsday Book 134 Yielding
Morning Reggie 138 Sft

A decent race, looking forward to watching this. Mad Jack Mytton will take some beating here if he turns up to battle.


15.45

Un Prophete 139 G/s
Champagne AT 139 G/s
Winner M 140 Gd
Theatre Flame 132 Sft.


16.20

Song Saa   120 G/s
Money Maid 114 G/s
Timons Tara  127 Hy
Kentford M  109 Sft.

There is no proof Timon's Tara will go through a faster surface. This creates a doubt for me, otherwise this would look like chancing.


Lingfield

13.45

Auric Goldfinger 72
Sea Tea Dea 66
Seprani 59
Bay Watch 57
Moneyoryourlife 55

Auric Goldfinger looks a good favourite here 6 points in hand over Sea Tea Dea who looks to have a lot to do to beat the fave.

14.15

Porto Ferro 68
Cool Echo 34
Cloud Nine 37
Mistry 47

14.45
Jack Flash 76
Cappananty Con 76
Juan Horsepower 74
Arzaak 75

15.20

Good Time Ahead 62
Bazwind 69
Crital Thinking 62
Life Wont Wait 63

Bazwind looks like he may take some stopping here if he runs to the figures.

15.55

Watersmeet 110
Rock Steady 113
Calling Out 108
Cohesion 104

16.30

Spirit Of Zebedee 67
Tidals Baby 66
Disclosure 61
Encapsulated 69
Compton Prince 75
Rigoletto 70

Compton Prince looks interesting in a very difficult race to pick out the winner.

17.00

Zabeel Star 74
Zephyros 74
Exceeding Power 80
Al Kafji 78
Black Dave 83



































15.2.17

Newcastle
Acheived on ground very similar unless stated.

14.20

Thisonetime 104
Crackdleloust 96
Derryname 103
Applaus 108                     Will take a chance on Applaus today at the odds. More a back to lay . Rather                                                                  than a win bet for me.

14.50

William M 103           Looks sure to run well. The deserves to be Favourite.
Chain of B 94 G/S
Dingo Bay 5
Anitopia 99                    At the current odds this could be value to outrun his price tag here.
Vincent Row 89

15.20

Baby Tickler 69                    This might be the lay of day. I could not have this one at all.
Floramoss 112
Beyondtemptation 110
Hopes Wishes 116
                                          The value here could be Hopes and Wishes. Only four runners avoid this fave.
15.50

Chakisto 98
The Pierre L 101        
Toola Boola 45
On a Promise 78
Captain Sharpe 97

16.20

Pistol Park 146          No value here, this must win today.
Clan Legend 120
Rathlin 134
Vangeur D G 139


Towcester

Very similar Ground unless stated

14.10

Brandon Roc 103
Flobury 96
Benability 0

14.40

Act Now 107                 On the ratings this looks a poor favourite.
Two Swallows 113
What a Diva 113
Socksy 121                   { These 2 look on the ratings like they would be my picks against this field }
Tambura 121                { I would be looking to trade these in running and leave a little more on the win }


15.10

Krackatoa King 125
Yanmare 119
Buttercup 119
Flashjack 126
Have a go Hero 114

Flashjack must be talented but looks a right monkey. He was beaten @ 1/5 when he ran in a hurdle race last year in April. The facet that Henry Daly has pursued with this horse can only be a positive, the two with the big weights here look to be where to concentrate. I would be quite happy to take a chance on Flashjack @ decent odds to put in a decent show.

16.40

Cadeyrn  115
Astrapaios 100
Storm Nelson 99

Not much to go on here, but enough to think that a small win bet on Cadeyrn looks ok.

Wolverhampton.     Just for you Andy. Actually a good excuse to see if they work or not?

14.00

Scrafton 72
Cape Spirit 60
Chestnut Storm 58
Ting in the Tale 59

14.30

Time of Anatefka 64
Jack the Laird 62
Topsoil 66
See Vermont 56
Frank the Barber 58

15.00

Fabulous F 50
Storm Trooper 60
Roaring R 62
Mr Michael 39
David's Beauty 61


15.30

Mythical Madness 115
Andastra  {No All Weather Rating Turf? 91. Use with caution}
Third Time Lucky 103
Bancuanah 86
Lanceur 97


16.00

Malaysian B 82
Dodgy Bob 72
Mime Dance 71
Top Offer 67
Call Out Loud 77 { Rating Achieved @ Southwell Surface. Caution}
Light From  84


16.30

Calvinist     (Turf Caution 107)
Isharah 92
Byron Flyer 77
Oceane  (Caution Turf 105)
Gang Warfare 108
Haines 94
Percy Veer 88.

17.00

Sea Dweller 75
Alhajjaj 49
Incredible Dream 42
Golden Muscade 61













Tuesday 14 February 2017

live

15.40

spinwheel 70.61.69
langham 69.56.74.67
palenville 73.67.72
bell heather 57.64.50

live

Newcastle 14.40
Taopix 76.63.72.57
Genres 78.62.0.54
Polar Forest 69.74.66.69
Thello 61.61.56

live

14.20 Ayr Ratings

Mcginty's Dream 99.72.56
Rivabodiva 100.87.0.102
Late Date 15.98.81

Monday 13 February 2017

14.2.17 Ratings Update

Fontwell.

I am rating up a few races and see how we go with this format.

14.00

Hurdles ratings only.

Brown Bear 100 0 87 76 81 86
Chivers 89 80 0 94 94 99
Bound Hill  76 78 72 88 97
Day of Roses 96 59 52 38 38
Rafafie  95 93 0 88 118

RAFAFIE

Not the best race in the world to start rating up. If Brown Bears puts in the same effort then he must be in the firing line. Lets see what happens by lunchtime tomorrow with this betting we may have more clues.


15.00
Chase ratings only
The GeeGeez GeeGee  103 64 116 91
Midtech Valentine 113
Un Anjou 100 93 108 120 103 85
Tara Bridge 104 103 111
Only Gorgeous 110 87 119 59

MIDTECH VALENTINE

MV did not run that well last time @ Doncaster, but she did record 113. Once she had jumped low at one fence then Balloned another she settled in her own pace and actually did not jump that badly. This here is easier. If we could just see a little improvement and she ran to around 118, she could really put a few of these to the wall, Un Anjou has 1 decent rating but since that effort has looked ordinary. We can assess this race again tomorrow like the earlier race, once the betting settles.



Not a race to bet in but we can see how the ratings do...

15.30
Casper King   118.115.22.124
Cash Again   113. 112
The Mighty Don 122.119


Ayr

16.20
Chase ratings.
Special Catch 133.0.97.135.130
Mister Ruffit 124.0.30.0
Mountain King 93.119.127.131.126


I like Special Catch here, maybe he can carry on where he left off @ Sedgefield. If he does he will be hard to beat here.




Update.   Midtech Valentine is a little weak in the market, but this can be expected on the evidence of her last run. I will stick with this however playing in running should yield a better price. How bold do you want to be I think a 30% bigger price is realistic.

Special Catch is the horse I am most looking forward to watching today.

Rafafie, that race looks very open. We need a bit of luck with this one.














Sunday 12 February 2017

13.2.17

Plumpton

14.30

MINELLA ON LINE

It does appear foolish to abandon Royal Salute, however MOL has proved he van come off a break and run very well, also him giving weight to lesser oposition has worked in his favour previously. We need to watch the market any negative drift and dump this. If you are betting this go for the 20% bigger price in running this gives you much better options if you are trading out for a back to lay.


Catterick

14.10

SAME CIRCUS

Donald McCains hunting ground he will be looking to mop this race up. This should be bread and butter for this horse. This can beat Big Penny. Jonjo's horses are just turning the corner now, Cheltenham is looming and he will want his string fired up and ready for the festival, he has had a poor season so far but sign's are looking much better so this is a worry here.



Cheltenham Book of bets. Portfolio.

We already have;

What I will add here is what I feel is a really good Antepost Cheltenham festival double.

Foxhunters   ON THE FRINGE

Cross Country  CANTLOW

Both horses are trained by Enda Bolger. The gamble here is both these horses are 12 years old.
These horses have been trained exclusively for these races.
Enda likes to win the Cross Country race. This is his race in his eyes.

We need to buck a trend in the Fox Hunters. This is age, however this horse has low mileage on the clock and this is his exclusive target.

To this I now want to add another horse that I feel is targeted towards the Neptune.

The Neptune Novices hurdle is a very tough race to try and predict the winner. I have set a few rules for filtering down through this field, just one of those simple rules is winning @ 20f or 21f.
I was keen on Death Duty but I fear this one will not run and the fact that he is 60s on betfair does not bode well.  The horse that will take the world of beating here is FINIANS OSCAR. If you want absolute peace of mind you could go Non Runner no bet and take 7/2. This is really tough this race but he fits the selection process like a tailor made suit.

Our Portfolio for Cheltenham 2017.

Fox Hunters   On the Fringe.

Cross Country Cantlow.

Neptune Novices Finians Oscar.

I will be looking to add more races and increase the portfolio.

12.2.17



Not much today. Only 1 bet today.

13.50

MR CLARKSON

Hopefully this horse will complete his 3 timer at the course here today beating chief rival Fly camp.

He appears to have the numbers in his favour today and have a little in hand over Fly camp.

Saturday 11 February 2017

11.2.17


Newbury

15.35

WAIT FOR ME

I am hopeful this can turn the form around with William H Bonney.

He is 14/1 with one of the bookies Bog, I would be very hopeful st the very least you could get your stake out of this for a free bet. This does not look like this race was just a chuck him in race I feel this has been on his agenda. This is a very hard race so you need some kind of insurance or back with low stakes.


16.10

VIEUX LILLE

This horse has only looked average really over fences but that was against better oposition today I think we might see a bettter display.



Uttoxeter

15.30

POPPY KAY

When we look @ Bobble Boru she has had so much racing connections just seem to chuck her in everything. At least with PK we have a mare with CD form we need a leap of faith that she will perform better than last run.










Thursday 9 February 2017

10.2.17



Kempton


14.10

GET ON YAGER

He is better than this field and he needs to prove it if he is going to line up @ Cheltenham in March.


15.10

VYTA DU ROC

If this turns up to fight then he will win this pulling a cart. I see no reason here why this should dominate these rivals.

live

8.30  Zorba the greek #win

live

Que Belle Vie   16.20      #Place

live

African beat 16.15 Lingfield   #win

live

16.05 Chelsea Flyer win

live

Brooks point 15.40   Win

9.2.17

Live. Did not exactly set the world on fire. It was not horrendous, I will continue trialling this as I feel there are some good days ahead with this. The trial will not lie. Maybe I am wrong.



Doncaster.

13.55

Pithiver is poor value here. I would not lay the horse, it would be nice to find something with an angle to beat him. I may look nearer race time and see if we can get something, or find a good place bet.


15.30

THREE WAYS

I think this horse could be well handicapped, this is a nasty race a very hard race. I feel a reduced win bet bet, or a back to lay. Then play the place bet. This is not a race to be plunging in on for sure. Small stakes at fairly decent odds would be the order here.


Huntingdon.

14.50

GIBALFARO


At the current odds I am really happy to be looking for a win bet here that I will angle towards s free win bet in play by laying off my stake and playing the place bet. I will be relly disappointed if this horse cannot place at least here today.



Live later and let us see if we can make a profit today.



Wednesday 8 February 2017

Live

Lord Clenagcastle 19.20    win

live

Town Park   16.50   Win

live

Duck A Lorange ///  place   16.40

live

Monumental Man  Place//    16.05 Chelms

live update..

Amazing I have been testing this before I put it out and it has been good, obviously otherwise I would not bother.   Sod's law today its has been pretty rubbish. Still we will stick with it maybe it is just a rocky start.
Remember +20% on your price.


14.20 Loss  1/6 R/fc
14.40 loss timons
14.50 loss Which one is which
15/10 win Altepix Place.
15.20 loss Dick Darsi win/place
15.30 win Ashadian

live

Ashadian   Win... 15.30 Chelms

Live

Dick Darsi  win and place    15.20

live

Altepix    Place win...       15.10

live

Which one is which  14.50 Win

live

Timons Tara   win...  14.40

Live

14.30 C.   Never Folding..  #winner.      


Got very upset and withdrawn...

Live

Reverse forecast    1/6      14.20  Carlise

Tuesday 7 February 2017

8.2.17 Update

Carlisle

14.20

NINE ALTARS


I like the Catterick run of this horse. If he turns up in that mood he simply must be ptretty close in this field and the ground should not be a worry.

Ludlow

16.15

BEARS AFFAIR

I just think this is the best horse in this race and if he retains anything of his ability he will win this race.


Today I am going to try something a little different on the blog. I am not sure completely if it will work out, but we can give it a go. I will trial this for the all weather.
I will attempt to update a few minutes before each race what I will be backing. It is very unlikely I will be betting in every race. I certainly will not be backing in odds on races. Again this is trial and error it will be last minute stuff, rush rush. So no big write ups just the name of the horse and the bet  which will look like this;

C 14.00 Captain K win (Example only).    Now this would mean Chelmsford/time/horse.  It is up to the individual if you take the price offered. I would suggest trying to get slightly bigger in play. 25% bigger than the price offered may be an option I will leave this up to you. Also if you wish to lay off in running, again this is your option I will not insult anyone.       Me personally I will layoff in running for at least my stake, that is also true on my place bets as well which we will likely strike today as well.
This is a trial, if you are going to follow this and bet with hard cash I suggest you use caution and sensible paper trade size wagers.

Also this may mean today some people miss the bets as this will really be last minute stuff. I will endeavour to get any wagers I have up here as early as I can. I will start a new page the Live page, that is where the information will go.

Monday 6 February 2017

7.2.17 UPDATE


Market Rasen.


14.50

ANCHOR MAN

The selection, I have a negative tick on this trainer at this track, this does concern me. This is the only negative I can find so I will put this up as a selection. I consider the track form of the selection superior to any else here.

The main danger is Alan Kings horse, Bastien. I have looked at both his Plumpton and Fontwell victories, he must be respected and he will come here with a good following. I think we can beat this one, it is tight and we do not have much if anything on this horse, I do think we have a class barrier advantage with the parameter I adopt.

Next on the list is Any Drama. This is capable of winning but I think this needs to run above anything I have seen on the track in public. The same applies to Bally Gilbert, you could not back this horse on public form.

The only other horse that needs a mention here is Coole Cody he finished only 3 lengths behind the mighty Neon Wolf in January, I would not be surprised to see money coming for this horse, I think he needs to find something on the selection.




16.00

DOITFORTHEVILLAGE

This to me is a genuine good favoutire. This ticks all the boxes I will along with a few others be shocked if this loses. I will bet this, If I can get 7/4 I would be delighted. That may mean backing this in play.


16.30

As expected the Fave should win this race. No point even talking about it really. The world and his dog know about it.

Hereford


14.40

MATROWS LADY

I will not chortle on here Matrows Lady. Obvious form choice nothing clever here.



Newcastle

14.00

SPIRIT OF THE VALE


The reasoning for putting this up is I think this looks better than the morning favourite also the 3rd fave has done nothing. This in my eyes gives us a strong chance of winning a soft race.


Updated.

Bastien is hotly fancied in the 14.50, a few of the big boy's have tipped this horse up. This is to be expected with his wins in the book and the horse he beat at Plumpton is well thought of by Moore and Co.
 Any Drama travelled very strongly and I feel the Back to Lays boys may be driving this price down I think this may trade low in play. The opportunity here may be if you are feeling bold to go 5+ on Anchor man. Remember how strongly I feel about drifters, if Anchor Man drifts strongly ditch him, lets beat the big boy tipsters who charge far too much!!!

My first selection on the AW lets hope we can kick off with a good run. I am quite keen on this ones chances I hope we are not let down here.

The other 2 are short so really they can only really let us down as you would expect these to win well.




Sunday 5 February 2017

6.2.16




The Sedgefield card really is poor. I was looking @ Chestnut Ben in the last race. The problem here is the horse looks like and also has been performing like a horse that really is in serious decline.
He should win this race but I am unwilling to put this one up as he looks like he is just as likely to finish down the field.

I will look again tomorrow, and look over the All weather card. If something looks good I will put out an update around midday.


Good Luck.

5.2.17

The going allowances I use are Timeform's going's as a few people stated different ground to mine. This just avoids confusion. Going will always be a subjective issue. I will always use the Timeform going discription, these can also obviously be subject to change very quickly in adverse conditions.


Taunton.

15.20

WADE HARPER


Contre Tous will be the horse to beat here, if he jumps these fences and handles this ground then he will be very hard to beat. The problem we have here is the Exeter run was average and if the selection runs his race this horse will need to do what I have written above and actually maybe a little more.
Big Windmill in my opinion is not as good as the selection on abilty or class, on what has so far been displayed in public, for this reason I am happy to take this one on, the trainer and jockey are proven good performers and I think this is the reason this horse is as short as it is. He has a chance.
Wade Harper is 0-3 on Soft ground so this is a question mark and a quite a significant negative. This though is the only queston mark I can find on the horse and the reason I am selecting him is @ Haydock in heavy ground rolling back time, November 2015 over fixed brush hurdles WH was in the process of running a really nice race when he basically just ploughed through one of the obstacles. Any kind of effort here remotely like that will put this horse in the firing line. We need to take that chance. This would be a sweet win if we can pull it off.


15.50

DELL ARCA

This is a nasty Handicap Hurdle. I am not going to spend very long going into details here as it is very open. Small stakes is all that I would advise. This selection is the sort of horse I could envisage Pipe running @ the festival in a 30 runner handicap off a feather weight with a 7lb claimer on board. This really was the only reason I have put him up, obviously I liked the Kempton run as well.
In all honesty he is priced as he should be, I am also not that keen on this favourite. Sensible stakes.

Muss

14.40

PETER THE MAYO MAN

I will not waffle on here about this horses chances, the price reflects his chance his Newbury run sets a standard here. No negatives.

15.40

OVERLAND FLYER

This is another horse running here that with Ami Debois being a Non Runner he should really dominate these runners and quite honestly just be too good here. This again is a short price so nothing clever here, and if they are beaten I end up looking foolish.



Punchestown.

14.30

COLOUR SQUADRON

I think we need to look at the specialist trainers here and your eyes fall on Peter Maher and Enda Bolger.
Then my eyes were immediately drawn towards a horse that I must admit that I have lost money on previously Colour Squadron.
This horse must go close in this today and he looks like he has been targeted at this race and is a better quality of horse than Ballybroker Bridge.  He can beat this on my ratings.

I hope for everyones sake that First Lieutenant is, as well documented in decline or else I can stop typing.

Usuel Smurfer has a bit of class and he could figure and has the advantage of being a little younger than the selection he could figure with a clean round.
 Auvergant let himself down last week with a scruffy jump that left the jockey a hard job of staying on. This has to be dangerous with better jumping.


Update.

The horse I really want to win today is Wade Harper this will give me the most pleasure as it is not obvious.

Dell Arca is a punt I do not hold this high on my list today.

The short priced horses are not much value and are expected to win, these will be disappointing if they cannot do whats required today.

Colour Squadron would be a good winner for us. I just have a slight doubt with him I cannot quite put my finger on it, it is likely that he has let me down before and really that was when he was set an easier task than today.

Friday 3 February 2017

4.2.14 UPDATE

Sandown.


12.40

This is a straight match between Couer De Lion & Rather Be. If I had to choose I would go with Rather Be.
However I would want to see confidence in the market and I would also need to be offered at least 2/1+
That would leave me having to bet the horse in play. This may be an option in the race.
Couer was a disappointment here last time, that does not instil confidence. I would be wary taking short odds on this one. He is though clearly better than that display, that leaves a big doubt.
 As it stands the best book on odds checker is 114% when we consider this is a basic match I see no real value at the odds. Maybe if they both ease a little we could take another look at this but that seems unlikely.


14.25

CLAN DES OBEAUX

A really nice novice chase here I think we will see these horses again @ the Festival but they may well be down the field.  Top Notch won @ Ascot but we cannot gain any worth from the effort as we could not see a thing. All I will do here is use the proximity of other horses gauged on ability. I think he needs to find a bit on the selection. La Prezien is more dangerous I liked his win @ Exeter this must be shortlisted and has win credentials.  Clan Des Obeaux blew his chance @ the 2nd last fence @ Cheltenham. What really convinced me this horse is really genuine is what happened after that error, the horse just rolled up his sleeves and came back. He could not make up the ground lost but he looked pretty good in his attempt. I think this horse warrants a good bet in this race.

I will leave the rest of Sandown as it looks a wee bit tough.

I spent ages going through Wetherby I could not find a thing here.

Musselburgh

13.30

PROJECT BLUEBOOK

Every winner of the last 5 years of this race has lined up in the Triump Hurdle.In fact 6 of the last 7 have managed to line up. None of them have actually won the race. They have though managed 3rd place on a couple of occasions. Project Bluebook has to beat 2 well respected big yards here. I think he will do just that. The manner of his last win here was nothing but exceptional for Musselburghs standards, this is no disrespect to Musselburgh. Hendersons horse will need to be very good first time over hurdles to beat the selection here. Maybe he is good enough, he was a very good flat horse, we know he will be very well schooled and certainly fit to run. If this were a different track today he may well have been enough to scare me off but I will take this on.  So we now come to Fidux, I have a bit of a problem with this horse. The Catterick run put simply is not good enough. We then have his Kempton run, well that was much better I still feel it is a little under the selections efforts. The thing is the horse is 2/2 so he is obviously very dangerous, winners win again, also they say never stop backing a horse until it loses. I hope it is today.



Fairyhouse

14.50

SHATTERED LOVE

I am going against a very strong trend here, Willie Mullins has won this race for the last 5 years and he has 2 really well fancied horses in here. I personally cannot bet Pravalaguna, she has not done enough so you are backing what she likely is? Can she win, of course Mullins is a genius and he wins with these sorts all the time. I use form based methods so She is well below the selection on racecourse figures.
This leaves me with Asthuria to beat I have mine a little in front of her.
Maybe I am being foolish here taking on double handed Mullins in a race he farms.

Thursday 2 February 2017

3.2.17 UPDATE

Update. 10.20am.

Catterick.

GOING: Soft, Good to Soft in places
RAILS: Rail dolled out increasing distances as follows:
Races 1 & 3 +27 yards
Races 2 & 7 +48 yards
Races 4, 5 & 6 +54 yards

13.15

WALSINGHAM GRANGE

I am rather confident here that we have quite a nice bet here in Walsingham Grange. Let's not get carried away here this is low grade fare and sometimes in these races the form can be unstable.
We have the beating of Allfredandnobell. We are left on paper with horses that need to beat us.


15.20

TREATY GIRL

I had this race between the selection and Actinpieces.  Nico De Boinville returns to the saddle today after a spell on the sidelines, and this looks a nice ride back. I do very much respect this danger though Actinpieces and this will be the last horse I want to see close up near the winning post. Money has come for the selection here and it now looks quite poor value in all honesty it looks as though a good run is expected.

15.55

BLACK NARCISSUS

She ran a belter @ Wincanton. I fancy her to run a very sound race tomorrow in another low grade affair.
She does obviously have to take on the boy's, this is a slight disadvantage but in this ground nothing will happen to quickly or be to rough.

16.25

BELL WEIR

We have to take fitness here on trust, so that is a question mark. That just takes this off a really good bet.
I am also worried on ground I am unsure, 2 question marks and I usually move on. These are are the negatives, the positives outweigh them for me as he looks to classy for these. The bookies are taking no chances with him and he looks poor value at the moment. Surely he should be 2/1?


Update. I feel the best bet would be Walsingham Grange today. Black Narcissus should really give a good account of herself but there are a couple in here that may trouble her. I hope she can do it.
Treaty Girl. Has this been laid on for a Nico celebration, I do find it odd that he would return to Catterick of all places to have his return ride, after all he has only ridden 2 chases here ever.
Bell Weir with 2 negative ticks is a niggling doubt. I do think this horse should out class these but my head is doubting him. I hope we get a good run from them all and they all return safe and sound. GOOD LUCK.






Wednesday 1 February 2017

2.2.17 UPDATE.

UPDATE.

Wincanton.

The going is HEAVY and there is some standing water on the course.

It could be the mudlarks day again today, the slow strong gallopers. If there is still standing water at racetime this will make it even tougher.
Race distances have been changed. Races 1 & 7 are +32yards, race 2 +24 yards, Races 3, 4 & 6 +48 yards and race 5 +36 yards.

13.35

AZZURI   ++NON RUNNER++

This race was easy for me to assess. Azzuri sets the standard here, he has to be beaten, or come here not right to not put up a bold show. We will stick to the rules of the market. If this gives out a negative market signal dump it.

14.00

ASTRE DE LA COUR

This is a fascinating race for me. I approach these races looking for horses that I can find doubts as to why they may not give their best. The 2 that I will get rid of are Casse Tete and Baby King.
Casse Tete on this ground I feel will be found out, if it was G/s I would be seriously looking @ this horse, it is heavy he goes.
Baby King 8 years old going chasing? I fell for this earlier in the week at Plumpton, No No No!! he goes.
If he was good at chasing he would have done it earlier, get rid!!!

Now it gets much harder and all 3 here have good win credentials. Theatre Flame. The trainer is just not firing also this horse has no heavy ground form. The trainer is 0-11 chasing here. he goes.
Now it is very tough Tizzard is a master trainer no doubting, and places his horses to win. I will always favour heavier weighted horses when it gets tight, and here is no exception, this is my opinion and I always try and stick to this unless I can see a favourable advantage on the lighter weighted horse.

Astre D L C. This horse has a good heavy ground win @ Ascot and the trainers horses are going well at present.
 Robert Walford trains under 30 horses, this means he can focus on what needs to be where. My hope is he has really placed this horse well today, as long as this does not drift in the betting market I will have a good bet on this horse tomorrow in a race where in all honesty we cannot discount any of the 5. This will make the win all the sweeter.


Towcester.

The going is Heavy. 
Rail movements;
Race 2: +65 yards
Race 5: +30 yards 

14.10

EATON ROCK

This is a 100% book on best odds currently. That is pretty rare. I will not spend too long on this I think Eaton Rock will win this race. If you fancy it back it @ 2.5 Bog with Will Hill.  I would rather wait and see what happens in the market/


Clonmel.

The going here is now heavy.
Clerk of the course Lorcan Wyer told ATR: "It's heavy and going to ride quite testing. It's a very strong wind in the back straight."

This tells us it will not be for the faint hearted here today.

14.25

MONALEE

No surprise here, no point chirping on too long about this horses chances it is pretty obvious.

16.10

SAMMANTOM

I like this ones chances here today, I just think he looks better than these. This is high on my list of good bets today. The big question mark and very off putting is the stable form.
On this occasion I am going to overlook that question mark as I feel this horse can outclass these today.

Tuesday 31 January 2017

1.2.17 Update Cheltenham Antepost.

What I will add here is what I feel is a really good Antepost Cheltenham festival double.

Foxhunters   ON THE FRINGE

Cross Country  CANTLOW

Both horses are trained by Enda Bolger. The gamble here is both these horses are 12 years old.
These horses have been trained exclusively for these races.
Enda likes to win the Cross Country race. This is his race in his eyes.

We need to buck a trend in the Fox Hunters. This is age, however this horse has low mileage on the clock and this is his exclusive target.

On the betfair sportsbook a £5.00 Win Double returns £84.35p at the current odds. That seems worth the risk for little more than a pint of Lager.



Hereford

13.30

MIRACLE CURE

My immediate reaction when I started assessing this race was Lillington. On what happened @ Wincanton it is Lillingtons race. I never quite saw this myself as 1.01 shot but the majority obviously did.
Going back, the truth is we do not know what happened @ Wincanton in the fog in this race.
The fact Venetia Williams is happy to go against this rival again is a positive as far as I am concerned.
I will though be absolutely governed by the Market. In this I mean this horse cannot start anything bigger than 8s If it does I would scrap it. If it wins above 8s I will not claim this as a winner as it will not have a penny of my money on. this does not mean you cannot ask for 8+ in running as long as the horse jumps off 8s or less.
Wait until the last possible seconds. This way we will know if he is here for business or just making up the numbers. This is a risky one and Lillington looks by far the easier option in the race. I will stick with my selection be sensible on stakes.


15.30

I spent ages on this race and I will skip it. I can make a case for a few in here there are easier races I will sit and watch this one.



Leicester.

14.10

HUFF AND PUFF

Just a coincidence that all 3 races I have covered have Venetia's horses fancied. I am though very worried here about Wilberdragon the 3rd here was pretty solid and good enough to put him in the firing line, better than that for me is the Sandown run. I fear this horse, he has youth and a bit of class to back it up.
Huff and Puff was lucky he did not crash out at the 4th last @ Wetherby. He smashed through the fence, that must have knocked the stuffing out of him. As long as he picks his feet up here I think he can run a good race.


15.10

I would not rush into Lady Buttons here. I certainly would not really take her on either. The difference yesterday was Lady Buttons was giving weight to inferior oposition. She may well blitz these a go onwards and upwards. It does seem a shame to give up on her, but there are a few in here that can cause her problems though I think. One that stands out is;
Allee Bleue; this one brings decent credentials into this race and brings really good form when you look @ the Huntingdon win. Unfortunately I think we need to just enjoy this one. I hope Lady Buttons goes in again then we know we had her at a great advantage. I fear this could be the end for now.


16.10

REIGNING SUPREME

This is a really good Novice hurdle for Leicester and the winner of this race would not be out of place running @ the Festival.  First things first Laser Light can easily win this, but he cannot be backed in my view.
If you back this horse I suggest you go and watch the Southwell race. 1 word sums it up "BAD".
Tommy Rapper is another I just could not back here, I think he was flattered in his last race. Yeah he can win of course.
I will stand by what I say what ever wins this could go to the festival and get great place money on good day, even more with a touch of luck.
I can only see one winner, that horse has to be the one with untapped potential I think this is well placed here Reigning Supreme should run a very nice race.


Monday 30 January 2017

31.1.17 Update

Lingfield

13.50

POLLY'S PURSUIT

This looks a match to me between Polly's Pursuit & Jubilympics. This to me looks like Polly is placed here to win. The old me would have been fumbling around to get a best price and having a decent bet on this one.
It is much nicer sitting back and seeing what the market will do.

16.30

LANDSCAPE   !!NON RUNNER!!

If you look @ racingpost ratings unadjusted Landscape comes in  @137 that is over 30 clear unadjusted of anything here. Telescopes have been needed to find this horse in his last 3 races. In fact we need to go back to a different trainer and 2012 to find a win. Venetia Williams could not unlock this horse so he must be an absolute pig. I would demand a price on this one if I back him. Wait and see once the markets talk tomorrow 10 minutes before the off. If you back this you will be wanting a double figure price for small money, remember this horse is clearly a Pig!!!


Southwell

15.40

LADY BUTTONS

No point talking to long here. The cat is out the bag with this one. This must win here again tomorrow, but she need's to see out this trip.

16.10

RED KALANI

If you are losing coming into this race go and do something else. This is a very hard race. I would keep stakes to an absolute minimum here.

The 2 I really like are Polly's Pursuit and Lady Buttons. I suppose there is a blip with buttons and that would be trip.

Down Royal

13.10

GREAT VIEW

Great View has not reached the same level chasing as he has hurdling, he has run in some good races and not been able to land a blow. Today looks a good opportunity for this horse.

13.40

Not a race to get to involved in. If you keep things simple here you would bet this Favourite. I have this niggle that Tony Martin may just attempt a stunt here.  Cillian's Return could be thrown in here if a reproduction of his hurdle form could be achieved. That is when this race starts getting messy. It is not for me.



A punishing lesson. DO NOT TAKE A PRICE!!!

Unless you are backing Antepost do not take a price.

I was a fool today, everything I preach was ignored just so I could, what I thought nick a little value.

The horse I bet was Clonusker. I marched in very proud thinking 5.8 thinking this was good deal. FOOL.
As the betting started I saw this horse jump out rapidly to 8s. I knew at this point the horse had no chance. I could have cut my losses and bailled @ around 7s but of course I did not do this, this would have been an intelligent thing to do. The horse ran an absolute shocker, the market told us it would and we were not let down. I am passing this on because, getting no run for your ££s is soul destroying.

We ended the day on a positive with Royal Salute going in.

30.1.17

Not much today at all.

Plumpton.

14.10

CLONUSKER

No point really talking much about Yourholidayisover. This horse is the one to beat here and if he replicates his effort 24 day's ago he will be very tough to beat if anyone Nap's this I could only really agree. I was looking for something to attempt to turn this over I liked Taroum but the market spoke otherwise so you cannot do that unless something dramatic in the market happens. Even then you would want a price on this rogue.
CLONUSKER is the horse I like. There are though some serious question marks to be honest.
On Timeform Heavy ground here @ Plumpton hurdling he has a record og 321. The 3rd he had a Bsp of 6.19 he was beaten around 10.5 lengths and he hit 1.71 in running for me he never looked like he should have traded to that sort of price.  The 2nd appeared a much better effort Bsp 8.6 beaten 2 lengths he went to 1.87. He made all the running albeit pretty slowly and did look a shade 1 paced in the finish. Then we have the win, this came off a mark of 74 so it is poor form, I would like to see this horse jump out from the front and put these to the sword, I believe this is the only chance we have of this winning today is tactically he needs to run the finish out of his opposition. I am not sure if he is good enough to beat Yourholidayisover even with these plans, also 9 years old and making his chasing debut is far from ideal and almost enough for me to scrap the whole plan as that is 2 question marks, these are seeds of doubt. I will stick with this though, maybe against better judgement.

15.50

This looks a lot less straightforward on paper anyway.

ROYAL SALUTE

I always like to see a horse jump the last out of heavy ground slickly, you then feel they may just have a little more to give, also I believe these types win more races as they move up the official rankings. I think this race today really should be for this horse to lose if he comes here in the same form as 2 weeks ago.


Saturday 28 January 2017

29.1.17 Update.

Fontwell

13.40

BOLVING

I feel Neil Mulholland's horse here is likely to be backed. He has the form figures that Joe public should be drawn towards, also Mulholland is a very good placer of his horses.
This may just present an opportunity here for BOLVING. I feel this horse needs very close attention, I am willing to forgive the Aintree run, that was a very competitive race.

14.10

Check the markets tomorrow but i really like 2 against the field here.
High Aspirations/Slide Check. I favour Slide check slightly this evening, but the market will be the better guide.

16.10

STIFF UPPER LIP

This looks a good race for Stiff upper Lip. This horse has mixed in better compnay than this and he will go in and win one of these type of races for sure. I hope it is tomorrow.



Sedgefield

13.50

ASH PARK

This looks a great opportunity here for this horse. This is high on my list tomorrow as a winner.


16.20

A very tentative selection here. We really would need to check the market in the last 10 minutes.
Cool Baranca. If she drifted at all I would not bother, it is a risky proposition.


Leopardstown.

14.00

LETS DANCE

Look no further than Mullins here, he farms this race. Treble handed here the one that looks to take all the beating is his Mare LETS DANCE. We will not get much of a price on her but she will undoubtably be Cheltenham bound after being steered towards a Grade 1 hurdle race in Ireland.


14.30

I cannot really split these when we consider chasing form. This looks an absolute belter this race. If Identity Thief has recovered from lameness and could convert his hurdling form he will win this race hands down. That is 2 If's. Lets sit and enjoy this race.


Quite a few short price's today. The best value from the above I guess would be Ash Park as long as he can avoid clumsy little errors he can really make his presence felt, my concern here would be the reduced trip may strain his jumping. I am willing to take that chance today, Volvalien will likely go from the front I am hopeful that Ash Park can quietly go round and strike on the run in.

Friday 27 January 2017

Updated 28.1.17

Cheltenham.

12.00

DEFI DU SEUIL

I priced this race up early afternoon before any prices were available. I undertand that Henderson has put his better novice hurdlers in this race in the past and I am sure Charli Parcs is very decent and the market appears to believe this is the one tomorrow. 
When I priced this I was convinced Defi Du Seuil would start at cramped odds and I would not have been surprised if this horse would have been Even money or a shade of odds on.

14.50

Cantlow

I am never keen on backing 12 year old's but Cantlow absolutely hosed in here last time, what will beat him here? Also I am very tempted to put this down as a Cheltenham Ante post good bet for the Cross Country.
This is short tomorrow but it really does look a penalty kick.


15.25

Wholestone.

This horse seems to love it here. Surely a big run can be expected 6/1 looks generous. However I am refusing to take any prices. If this happens to drift then ditch it and just go with the top 2.


Doncaster

13.55

Upsilion Bleu.

This has to give weight to 2 very promising youngsters Cyrius Moriviere was really unlucky that the saddle slipped as was surely going to run out a good winner here last time. Romain De Senam looked good last time and is anything, however he had to win that in a hack. The selection does not run bad races and he mixes in decent company he should give a good account.

15.40

ZIGA BOY.

I have run a few filters and you cannot get sway from this horse and I feel this is likely as he just seems to run well here. This maybe his track.
Obviously this is ultra competitive and we will need a slice luck here to go all out for the win. I would prefer to trade in and out of this horse at the very least I think you can angle a free bet here if you are not to greedy at these odds.


Naas

14.00

Bosco Di Alco

This horse is at the point now where he could become a let down after showing promise. I will give this horse its final chance today to shine today. I am fairly confident if this horse comes here to battle he should win this

Thursday 26 January 2017

27.1.17

Doncaster

14.25

Stepover. In a very poor race this looks well placed here to run a sound race.


Huntingdon

12.30

There is a chance here Alan King could be unleashing a good horse with Sir Antony Browne the market will not hide that fact if this is true. I would rather go with proven form lines here with London Prize.

26.1.17

Not much today.

13.25

I like Wizards Sliabh. I think this is the best win chance today I can find.


14.35

Ballywilliam. Going back hurdling I am hoping could be key here. At these odds there is scope to at the very least take a free vet out the horse.


I hope tomorrow is better racing

Wednesday 25 January 2017

25.1.17

Catterick

13.25

5/4 Flora Moss is not for me. I will be looking @ Cracking Find but not much here.

13.55

Mister Don turns out again, maybe we could trade him over in running, nothing else really looks good.

14.30

Nietzsche looked generous the other day I would not accept the price but if we could get +30 % on the price I would be tempted.

15.40

I am keen to get Heron's Heir beaten I think this horse is a disappointment he does to his credit have a decent speed figure for chasing but I will play this as though he is beaten. This builds in value if we can find a big player here. I will side with Blandfords Gunner, not without reservations though. I do not think much of the pilot also I will need to see confidence in the market and no negative movement otherwise I would scrap this.


Ludlow

13.45

Oxwich Bay really should win this. I would to see confidence and him remaining sub 3s. I may try and get him in running @ 3.5.

14.50

Originally I was quite keen on Greyed A. The market appears negative for the horse? I will swerve this unless I see this hammered in for confidence.


16.00

Star Rider. I think this has a great chance today of getting back on the winning trail. I will be looking for 5s on her today.

16.30

See how things go I was looking @ Iconic sky in here. I am not keen in getting to involved in either taking on odds on shots or backing them unless there are really strong grounds to do so.


Tuesday 24 January 2017

24.1.17 Monbeg begs for compensation.

Wetherby

14.30

Fingerontheswitch has not reached anyway near the level he was as a hurdler and ultimately has been disappointing really. He will surely win one of these races and it appears today may be the day if his price stays sround this level. I feel there are much better 9/4 shots. We cannot rely on him. If I was going to back this for the win I would rather bet Captain Mowbray in the previous race at least he has solid looking level form and it is here at the course. At the oods I would back neither for the win and if they stay tight in the market adopt the drifter method on both, that is a far safer option on 2 shaky looking fancied horses.

15.30

MOONBEG RIVER.
I like this horse here we have 3 solid runs and let us hope he can turn up here no worse for the bring down @ Aintree.
The horse did absolutely nothing wrong as The fresh prince fell and brought down Monbeg. The only slight concern was the horse took a right belt under the chin from another runner while he was down, it was nothing to serious but I hope it has not tarnished the horse. We need to give him a chance here as long as we do not encounter the dreaded drift and he stays below 6.4 then maybe connections will be looking for some kind of compensation here, let us hope it is the win. A bold show must happen as long as this horse stays solid in the market.


Leics.


13.20

This looks a straight duel between Sister Sibyl and Carn Spindle. There is very little between them on paper apart from experience jumping the hurdles.


14.20

I cannot really look past LaVaticane here Timeform appear to agree and all this will do is compress the price. Absolutely no VALUE will be offer here as the world and his dog follow the timeform top rated. I may be tempted to stay this side of 4s and put an offer in @ 3.95 see if get matched, then work from there.



MOONBEG RIVER is my horse I like today

Monday 23 January 2017

23.1.17

Bangor.

13.50

This looks a perfect race to follow the money it is a 3 horse race according to the betting. We can eliminate the drifter near the off I am hopeful Gray day is left as I am not so keen on this one so I would pick 1 of the other 2 Back to Thatch or The Bay Oak..

14.20

I do like Timoteo here. I will see if he remains confident in the market. Everything points in the direction of a good run from this one.

14.50

Any money for African Gold would be very significant. I do think though the engine has gone on this horse. All the signs are this horse looks gone. Money will be a big sign on this horse, as if he retains any ability he could smash this field to bits. I expect this to drift. The horse to beat her using logic appears to be Whisky Chaser, but he looks poor value currently I would accept nothing less than 4.5 on this one.

15.20

We bet Cabragh last time and it won really well, this is a very likeable horse and has done everything asked.
The horse that caught my eye here is ROLLING THUNDER I consider him to be the best bet on this card.
On watching the replay you can see when this horse jumps the last fence he is still full of energy, there was definitely more in the tank to give and he was very generous on the run in, I think whoever beats this will need to be good and at the top of their game.

Newcastle

13.40

Lady Buttons. I think the last run @ the course looks pretty decent. She is the one I am looking @ here.

14.10

There is a lot of early confidence behind Maxed out King. I spent no time on this as it is very short.

15.10

I have timed both No Planning and Bigirononhiship from the 3rd last fence Timeform have the ground stated as Soft.

No Planning      36.93
BigIrononhiship 37.90

This for me is significant especially when No planning was forcing the pace. This looks a great bet for me today but that is only my opinion. My best bet @ Newcastle I hope this stays solid in the market.

15.40

This looks a dodgy race to me, I will view this from a trading view only the horse I would trade in play is Rhymers Stone.

16.10

No real opinion here the early market is supporting Nomoreblackjack, however no liquidity so no real thoughts here.


There are 2 horses that really are high on my list    15.10 No Planning   15.20 Rolling Thunder.



Sunday 22 January 2017

22.1.17. Veinard to gain compensation.

Not much to write about today.

Leopardstown.

15.10

Everything appears to have run in the race won by That's a Wrap. I have a problem with this horse in that if he win's today he may well have to pass at least half this field to do so. He certainly could do it again and I would suggest if you are backing this one you should back him in running @ 14+ you really should get matched this one is not for me. I am going to side Veinard that was runner up to That's a Wrap.
As long as this horse can arrive here in the same form he should at very least have a decent track position so I would be looking to clear my stake @ 9+ for a free bet, and maybe strike again @ 4+ for a green screen. This is not a race to be looking to be making fortunes on for sure so I think we should be keeping the powder pretty dry.

14.40

I feel the winner will come from the top 3 in the betting currently. I have run a few filters and looked @ various ratings. I will take 2 against the field here Bentelimar & Stella Nation. Again this is a really challenging race certaintly not for the faint hearted, I feel I could pick 8 here and still miss the winner.

16.10

Visually when watching the races of Bakmaj and Imperial Way there can be no doubting that Bakmaj certainly looks much more impressive, granted this is was a flat race and he did not have the incovienence of having to jump any hurdles so thing's may have been different if this was the case. Today obviously this is a flat race so maybe I am over complicating thing's by not just going with this horse. I am fairly confident I can get a good run for my money in IMPERIAL WAY, the horse would appear to not have a change of gear so I am hopeful today this horse will remain handy and just grind out a win here from the 3f marker and just keep going which means something would hopefully need a good turn of foot to beat him.

Saturday 21 January 2017

21.1.17 Quench that Thirst

Haydock

12.55


HEATH HUNTER. I am a little flimsy on this horse, I am hopeful the engine has not gone, once Pipe's horses start going down hill they can very quickly become very disappointing. I am hopefulthis is not the case with this fellow today. This time last year he was in the 130's running well. I will give this a chance as long as the market does not tell us otherwise.


16.20

SPLASH OF GINGE. Maybe he has rediscovered himself as fairly decent hurdler again. I feel bringing him back here he is worth a go to dive a great account of himself.

Navan

12.30

THIRSTY WORK. I really like the last run of this horse. He set off and alway's stayed handy in the final 3f he just ground it out, another run like that and he will be a big contender here.

15.20

I believe Arbre De Vie has to lose this race in my opinion. However that is stating the obvious.

15.55

I would want to check the markets but  Boher Call catches the eye. This tentative, I would not want to be looking to this race to bail myself out of a hole. If we are losing at this point this is not a race to be looking for salvation.

If I had to pick out 1 horse today my substantial gut is pointing towards  THIRSTY WORK

Friday 20 January 2017

20.1.17

It is Friday and let's celebrate with some weekend cash!!! Finger's crossed.

Chepstow.

14.10

No point dwelling to long on this, Robinsfirth looks the horse to beat here.
 Course form can be invaluable here and there appears to be a little encouragement in the market for Definite Outcome he is capable of coming home respectably in this type of ground this could pose value if the confidence continues right through till post time.

14.45

Again no point discussing this race too long the fave looks like he has to lose this race. I would rather look elsewhere than go with the majority. If you bet this or the above go 1 point above the max trade then at least if it wins you will get some kind of return on your investment. This looks a very solid fave I certainly would not be laying this fellow today time and again Chepstow form is the best form to come here with.

15.20

This is a very tough race to start trying to pick winners out, but I do really like Allchilled out. At the moment using the money scale we would be looking to get 6.8 on this horse. That still looks pretty meagre when we frame up the race, it is a hard race. I would demand 8+ or I would rather look elsewhere. As long as this does not drift this will be my plan here and if I could get 8s that will mean I can sell off @ 4s and still leave some winnings on for a nice free bet.

16.25

I am really drawn here towards William Money I really hope this horse at the very least stay's steady in the market as I feel he could run a smashing race today, we do need to have a little leap of faith as his chasing form does look pretty bad in all honesty. My hope and it is HOPE is the hurdle race may just have sharpened him up. It is a a flimsy idea and I would completely understand if you discarded this horse. I just have a niggle that he may run a belter today. We do need to see no drift though otherwise scrap him.

Muss
12.50

I did not like Sports Barrow, but then I did not like anything. I would rather lay this all day every day, but that is a fool's advice. So I cannot give any here. Use the drifter method and have a fiver if you must bet.
Danceintothe light rarely runs a bad race here, so maybe he is worth a look I have no view on the race.

13.20

Mister Don. I do not fancy this much but do feel it could run a decent race, I am very concerned about his previous track encounters, I just do not think he likes it here. I am unsure on this, I think we can find less risky things to put our money on.

13.50

Appy Days has to lose this. I have seen better 2.2 shot's but this looks placed here to win. Again if you must bet this demand 3.5 thats a point above the max trade for money currently, if it goes bigger before the off then you can swerve it.

14.25

I do like Project Bluebook here, I like the Jockey I like the trainer I like the fact they are bringing this horse back here again after a good win. It again is a hard race to be picking the winner in, £491 went through @ 5s. So I would be looking for 6 using my rather crude 1 point above max. This will then if matched give me a little scope to angle on a free bet again at least. I feel we could even get more than 6s 7s looks reasonable in this race. The other horse in here that alway's runs well @ Muss is Old Johnny Delta, I think if you are backing to lay then this old boy is a genuine old friend. I do not think he will win this race but I think he will and is capable of giving these a good run for their money.

15.00

I like Chestnut Ben. I will try and bet this today I will not accept anything less than 8s more like 10s would be more realistic. I do not like betting old horses as they are simply not as good as the youngsters. This would be a minimum stakes bet and I would be certainly getting all my stake back quite early if I can get matched @ 10s.+. Small stakes. Age is not on Ben's side.

15.30

Pulpitarian. This is a bad race I cannot say many positives. I liked the Kelso run of this horse, so maybe it would be wise to wait and see if he returns to that track.

16.05

I would say this is a perfect race to use the drifter eliminator method.




Too many selections here today. If you nailed me to 1 horse I am quite keen on Project Bluebook. Good luck today I hope we can make a few quid to set up a great weekend.












Thursday 19 January 2017

Drifter method

A few people have asked me to explain the Drifter Eliminator Method. Lets start from the begining I do it this way pen and paper because I am old and cannot figure out how to screenshot. Write down 10 minutes before a race the prices on the 1st 3 in the betting. 1 minute or as late as possible eliminate any runner that has shifted negatively in the market. This leaves 2 runners, I suggest at this point you have an idea of what you fancy and what you do not. I look @ all the usual probables, ground,trip,blah blah, I will not insult anyones intelligence here. I also look at raw Rp ratings and chuck a lower figure. You decide how you choose your horse we are all unique and subjective.

Next stage we need to know at what price we are backing, and at what price we are laying. I have been simply backing at 1 point bigger than the maximum traded price that has gone for more than £500. You find this information on the graph on betfair. This is your backing price. The laying price I have been doing the same 1 point less than the minimum traded price for £500.
I think this method is rather crude, and speaking with a very good trader and seeking ideas he came up with a % dependant on price. I feel this may be a much better method, although the simplistic 1 point method each way has yielded a fantastic return.

I have arranged to speak to a couple of people tomorrow to explain it, I am also a very visual learner myself and understand written instructions can be very complicated.

 The reason we stick to 1,2,3 in the betting is this is where the money flows through, that is my theory. Also we are jumping on the greed bandwagon. The majority of bettors will follow money off a cliff, we are doing the same, however we are insisting on the illusive "VALUE". We set these trades up before the race starts, but as close to the jump off as possible as we really want to chase the money. As the money chasers appear to follow on when the race is in progress.
 I have noticed this time and time again, a fancied horse drifts, it travels well in a race but its price stays unbelievably high.

 I did plan to put up the cards for tomorrow but I felt a need to write this. If it helps anyone great, if I have confused you more I am sorry. UPDATE this is still very much a work in progress I am thinking maybe 20% on price may be better and 40% on the minimum trade again these are figures that may need tuning it really is trial and error @ the moment.