Wednesday, 1 February 2017

2.2.17 UPDATE.



The going is HEAVY and there is some standing water on the course.

It could be the mudlarks day again today, the slow strong gallopers. If there is still standing water at racetime this will make it even tougher.
Race distances have been changed. Races 1 & 7 are +32yards, race 2 +24 yards, Races 3, 4 & 6 +48 yards and race 5 +36 yards.



This race was easy for me to assess. Azzuri sets the standard here, he has to be beaten, or come here not right to not put up a bold show. We will stick to the rules of the market. If this gives out a negative market signal dump it.



This is a fascinating race for me. I approach these races looking for horses that I can find doubts as to why they may not give their best. The 2 that I will get rid of are Casse Tete and Baby King.
Casse Tete on this ground I feel will be found out, if it was G/s I would be seriously looking @ this horse, it is heavy he goes.
Baby King 8 years old going chasing? I fell for this earlier in the week at Plumpton, No No No!! he goes.
If he was good at chasing he would have done it earlier, get rid!!!

Now it gets much harder and all 3 here have good win credentials. Theatre Flame. The trainer is just not firing also this horse has no heavy ground form. The trainer is 0-11 chasing here. he goes.
Now it is very tough Tizzard is a master trainer no doubting, and places his horses to win. I will always favour heavier weighted horses when it gets tight, and here is no exception, this is my opinion and I always try and stick to this unless I can see a favourable advantage on the lighter weighted horse.

Astre D L C. This horse has a good heavy ground win @ Ascot and the trainers horses are going well at present.
 Robert Walford trains under 30 horses, this means he can focus on what needs to be where. My hope is he has really placed this horse well today, as long as this does not drift in the betting market I will have a good bet on this horse tomorrow in a race where in all honesty we cannot discount any of the 5. This will make the win all the sweeter.


The going is Heavy. 
Rail movements;
Race 2: +65 yards
Race 5: +30 yards 



This is a 100% book on best odds currently. That is pretty rare. I will not spend too long on this I think Eaton Rock will win this race. If you fancy it back it @ 2.5 Bog with Will Hill.  I would rather wait and see what happens in the market/


The going here is now heavy.
Clerk of the course Lorcan Wyer told ATR: "It's heavy and going to ride quite testing. It's a very strong wind in the back straight."

This tells us it will not be for the faint hearted here today.



No surprise here, no point chirping on too long about this horses chances it is pretty obvious.



I like this ones chances here today, I just think he looks better than these. This is high on my list of good bets today. The big question mark and very off putting is the stable form.
On this occasion I am going to overlook that question mark as I feel this horse can outclass these today.

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