The going allowances I use are Timeform's going's as a few people stated different ground to mine. This just avoids confusion. Going will always be a subjective issue. I will always use the Timeform going discription, these can also obviously be subject to change very quickly in adverse conditions.
Contre Tous will be the horse to beat here, if he jumps these fences and handles this ground then he will be very hard to beat. The problem we have here is the Exeter run was average and if the selection runs his race this horse will need to do what I have written above and actually maybe a little more.
Big Windmill in my opinion is not as good as the selection on abilty or class, on what has so far been displayed in public, for this reason I am happy to take this one on, the trainer and jockey are proven good performers and I think this is the reason this horse is as short as it is. He has a chance.
Wade Harper is 0-3 on Soft ground so this is a question mark and a quite a significant negative. This though is the only queston mark I can find on the horse and the reason I am selecting him is @ Haydock in heavy ground rolling back time, November 2015 over fixed brush hurdles WH was in the process of running a really nice race when he basically just ploughed through one of the obstacles. Any kind of effort here remotely like that will put this horse in the firing line. We need to take that chance. This would be a sweet win if we can pull it off.
This is a nasty Handicap Hurdle. I am not going to spend very long going into details here as it is very open. Small stakes is all that I would advise. This selection is the sort of horse I could envisage Pipe running @ the festival in a 30 runner handicap off a feather weight with a 7lb claimer on board. This really was the only reason I have put him up, obviously I liked the Kempton run as well.
In all honesty he is priced as he should be, I am also not that keen on this favourite. Sensible stakes.
PETER THE MAYO MAN
I will not waffle on here about this horses chances, the price reflects his chance his Newbury run sets a standard here. No negatives.
This is another horse running here that with Ami Debois being a Non Runner he should really dominate these runners and quite honestly just be too good here. This again is a short price so nothing clever here, and if they are beaten I end up looking foolish.
I think we need to look at the specialist trainers here and your eyes fall on Peter Maher and Enda Bolger.
Then my eyes were immediately drawn towards a horse that I must admit that I have lost money on previously Colour Squadron.
This horse must go close in this today and he looks like he has been targeted at this race and is a better quality of horse than Ballybroker Bridge. He can beat this on my ratings.
I hope for everyones sake that First Lieutenant is, as well documented in decline or else I can stop typing.
Usuel Smurfer has a bit of class and he could figure and has the advantage of being a little younger than the selection he could figure with a clean round.
Auvergant let himself down last week with a scruffy jump that left the jockey a hard job of staying on. This has to be dangerous with better jumping.
The horse I really want to win today is Wade Harper this will give me the most pleasure as it is not obvious.
Dell Arca is a punt I do not hold this high on my list today.
The short priced horses are not much value and are expected to win, these will be disappointing if they cannot do whats required today.
Colour Squadron would be a good winner for us. I just have a slight doubt with him I cannot quite put my finger on it, it is likely that he has let me down before and really that was when he was set an easier task than today.