Tuesday, 31 January 2017

1.2.17 Update Cheltenham Antepost.

What I will add here is what I feel is a really good Antepost Cheltenham festival double.

Foxhunters   ON THE FRINGE

Cross Country  CANTLOW

Both horses are trained by Enda Bolger. The gamble here is both these horses are 12 years old.
These horses have been trained exclusively for these races.
Enda likes to win the Cross Country race. This is his race in his eyes.

We need to buck a trend in the Fox Hunters. This is age, however this horse has low mileage on the clock and this is his exclusive target.

On the betfair sportsbook a £5.00 Win Double returns £84.35p at the current odds. That seems worth the risk for little more than a pint of Lager.




My immediate reaction when I started assessing this race was Lillington. On what happened @ Wincanton it is Lillingtons race. I never quite saw this myself as 1.01 shot but the majority obviously did.
Going back, the truth is we do not know what happened @ Wincanton in the fog in this race.
The fact Venetia Williams is happy to go against this rival again is a positive as far as I am concerned.
I will though be absolutely governed by the Market. In this I mean this horse cannot start anything bigger than 8s If it does I would scrap it. If it wins above 8s I will not claim this as a winner as it will not have a penny of my money on. this does not mean you cannot ask for 8+ in running as long as the horse jumps off 8s or less.
Wait until the last possible seconds. This way we will know if he is here for business or just making up the numbers. This is a risky one and Lillington looks by far the easier option in the race. I will stick with my selection be sensible on stakes.


I spent ages on this race and I will skip it. I can make a case for a few in here there are easier races I will sit and watch this one.




Just a coincidence that all 3 races I have covered have Venetia's horses fancied. I am though very worried here about Wilberdragon the 3rd here was pretty solid and good enough to put him in the firing line, better than that for me is the Sandown run. I fear this horse, he has youth and a bit of class to back it up.
Huff and Puff was lucky he did not crash out at the 4th last @ Wetherby. He smashed through the fence, that must have knocked the stuffing out of him. As long as he picks his feet up here I think he can run a good race.


I would not rush into Lady Buttons here. I certainly would not really take her on either. The difference yesterday was Lady Buttons was giving weight to inferior oposition. She may well blitz these a go onwards and upwards. It does seem a shame to give up on her, but there are a few in here that can cause her problems though I think. One that stands out is;
Allee Bleue; this one brings decent credentials into this race and brings really good form when you look @ the Huntingdon win. Unfortunately I think we need to just enjoy this one. I hope Lady Buttons goes in again then we know we had her at a great advantage. I fear this could be the end for now.



This is a really good Novice hurdle for Leicester and the winner of this race would not be out of place running @ the Festival.  First things first Laser Light can easily win this, but he cannot be backed in my view.
If you back this horse I suggest you go and watch the Southwell race. 1 word sums it up "BAD".
Tommy Rapper is another I just could not back here, I think he was flattered in his last race. Yeah he can win of course.
I will stand by what I say what ever wins this could go to the festival and get great place money on good day, even more with a touch of luck.
I can only see one winner, that horse has to be the one with untapped potential I think this is well placed here Reigning Supreme should run a very nice race.

Monday, 30 January 2017

31.1.17 Update




This looks a match to me between Polly's Pursuit & Jubilympics. This to me looks like Polly is placed here to win. The old me would have been fumbling around to get a best price and having a decent bet on this one.
It is much nicer sitting back and seeing what the market will do.



If you look @ racingpost ratings unadjusted Landscape comes in  @137 that is over 30 clear unadjusted of anything here. Telescopes have been needed to find this horse in his last 3 races. In fact we need to go back to a different trainer and 2012 to find a win. Venetia Williams could not unlock this horse so he must be an absolute pig. I would demand a price on this one if I back him. Wait and see once the markets talk tomorrow 10 minutes before the off. If you back this you will be wanting a double figure price for small money, remember this horse is clearly a Pig!!!




No point talking to long here. The cat is out the bag with this one. This must win here again tomorrow, but she need's to see out this trip.



If you are losing coming into this race go and do something else. This is a very hard race. I would keep stakes to an absolute minimum here.

The 2 I really like are Polly's Pursuit and Lady Buttons. I suppose there is a blip with buttons and that would be trip.

Down Royal



Great View has not reached the same level chasing as he has hurdling, he has run in some good races and not been able to land a blow. Today looks a good opportunity for this horse.


Not a race to get to involved in. If you keep things simple here you would bet this Favourite. I have this niggle that Tony Martin may just attempt a stunt here.  Cillian's Return could be thrown in here if a reproduction of his hurdle form could be achieved. That is when this race starts getting messy. It is not for me.

A punishing lesson. DO NOT TAKE A PRICE!!!

Unless you are backing Antepost do not take a price.

I was a fool today, everything I preach was ignored just so I could, what I thought nick a little value.

The horse I bet was Clonusker. I marched in very proud thinking 5.8 thinking this was good deal. FOOL.
As the betting started I saw this horse jump out rapidly to 8s. I knew at this point the horse had no chance. I could have cut my losses and bailled @ around 7s but of course I did not do this, this would have been an intelligent thing to do. The horse ran an absolute shocker, the market told us it would and we were not let down. I am passing this on because, getting no run for your ££s is soul destroying.

We ended the day on a positive with Royal Salute going in.


Not much today at all.




No point really talking much about Yourholidayisover. This horse is the one to beat here and if he replicates his effort 24 day's ago he will be very tough to beat if anyone Nap's this I could only really agree. I was looking for something to attempt to turn this over I liked Taroum but the market spoke otherwise so you cannot do that unless something dramatic in the market happens. Even then you would want a price on this rogue.
CLONUSKER is the horse I like. There are though some serious question marks to be honest.
On Timeform Heavy ground here @ Plumpton hurdling he has a record og 321. The 3rd he had a Bsp of 6.19 he was beaten around 10.5 lengths and he hit 1.71 in running for me he never looked like he should have traded to that sort of price.  The 2nd appeared a much better effort Bsp 8.6 beaten 2 lengths he went to 1.87. He made all the running albeit pretty slowly and did look a shade 1 paced in the finish. Then we have the win, this came off a mark of 74 so it is poor form, I would like to see this horse jump out from the front and put these to the sword, I believe this is the only chance we have of this winning today is tactically he needs to run the finish out of his opposition. I am not sure if he is good enough to beat Yourholidayisover even with these plans, also 9 years old and making his chasing debut is far from ideal and almost enough for me to scrap the whole plan as that is 2 question marks, these are seeds of doubt. I will stick with this though, maybe against better judgement.


This looks a lot less straightforward on paper anyway.


I always like to see a horse jump the last out of heavy ground slickly, you then feel they may just have a little more to give, also I believe these types win more races as they move up the official rankings. I think this race today really should be for this horse to lose if he comes here in the same form as 2 weeks ago.

Saturday, 28 January 2017

29.1.17 Update.




I feel Neil Mulholland's horse here is likely to be backed. He has the form figures that Joe public should be drawn towards, also Mulholland is a very good placer of his horses.
This may just present an opportunity here for BOLVING. I feel this horse needs very close attention, I am willing to forgive the Aintree run, that was a very competitive race.


Check the markets tomorrow but i really like 2 against the field here.
High Aspirations/Slide Check. I favour Slide check slightly this evening, but the market will be the better guide.



This looks a good race for Stiff upper Lip. This horse has mixed in better compnay than this and he will go in and win one of these type of races for sure. I hope it is tomorrow.




This looks a great opportunity here for this horse. This is high on my list tomorrow as a winner.


A very tentative selection here. We really would need to check the market in the last 10 minutes.
Cool Baranca. If she drifted at all I would not bother, it is a risky proposition.




Look no further than Mullins here, he farms this race. Treble handed here the one that looks to take all the beating is his Mare LETS DANCE. We will not get much of a price on her but she will undoubtably be Cheltenham bound after being steered towards a Grade 1 hurdle race in Ireland.


I cannot really split these when we consider chasing form. This looks an absolute belter this race. If Identity Thief has recovered from lameness and could convert his hurdling form he will win this race hands down. That is 2 If's. Lets sit and enjoy this race.

Quite a few short price's today. The best value from the above I guess would be Ash Park as long as he can avoid clumsy little errors he can really make his presence felt, my concern here would be the reduced trip may strain his jumping. I am willing to take that chance today, Volvalien will likely go from the front I am hopeful that Ash Park can quietly go round and strike on the run in.

Friday, 27 January 2017

Updated 28.1.17




I priced this race up early afternoon before any prices were available. I undertand that Henderson has put his better novice hurdlers in this race in the past and I am sure Charli Parcs is very decent and the market appears to believe this is the one tomorrow. 
When I priced this I was convinced Defi Du Seuil would start at cramped odds and I would not have been surprised if this horse would have been Even money or a shade of odds on.



I am never keen on backing 12 year old's but Cantlow absolutely hosed in here last time, what will beat him here? Also I am very tempted to put this down as a Cheltenham Ante post good bet for the Cross Country.
This is short tomorrow but it really does look a penalty kick.



This horse seems to love it here. Surely a big run can be expected 6/1 looks generous. However I am refusing to take any prices. If this happens to drift then ditch it and just go with the top 2.



Upsilion Bleu.

This has to give weight to 2 very promising youngsters Cyrius Moriviere was really unlucky that the saddle slipped as was surely going to run out a good winner here last time. Romain De Senam looked good last time and is anything, however he had to win that in a hack. The selection does not run bad races and he mixes in decent company he should give a good account.



I have run a few filters and you cannot get sway from this horse and I feel this is likely as he just seems to run well here. This maybe his track.
Obviously this is ultra competitive and we will need a slice luck here to go all out for the win. I would prefer to trade in and out of this horse at the very least I think you can angle a free bet here if you are not to greedy at these odds.



Bosco Di Alco

This horse is at the point now where he could become a let down after showing promise. I will give this horse its final chance today to shine today. I am fairly confident if this horse comes here to battle he should win this

Thursday, 26 January 2017




Stepover. In a very poor race this looks well placed here to run a sound race.



There is a chance here Alan King could be unleashing a good horse with Sir Antony Browne the market will not hide that fact if this is true. I would rather go with proven form lines here with London Prize.


Not much today.


I like Wizards Sliabh. I think this is the best win chance today I can find.


Ballywilliam. Going back hurdling I am hoping could be key here. At these odds there is scope to at the very least take a free vet out the horse.

I hope tomorrow is better racing

Wednesday, 25 January 2017




5/4 Flora Moss is not for me. I will be looking @ Cracking Find but not much here.


Mister Don turns out again, maybe we could trade him over in running, nothing else really looks good.


Nietzsche looked generous the other day I would not accept the price but if we could get +30 % on the price I would be tempted.


I am keen to get Heron's Heir beaten I think this horse is a disappointment he does to his credit have a decent speed figure for chasing but I will play this as though he is beaten. This builds in value if we can find a big player here. I will side with Blandfords Gunner, not without reservations though. I do not think much of the pilot also I will need to see confidence in the market and no negative movement otherwise I would scrap this.



Oxwich Bay really should win this. I would to see confidence and him remaining sub 3s. I may try and get him in running @ 3.5.


Originally I was quite keen on Greyed A. The market appears negative for the horse? I will swerve this unless I see this hammered in for confidence.


Star Rider. I think this has a great chance today of getting back on the winning trail. I will be looking for 5s on her today.


See how things go I was looking @ Iconic sky in here. I am not keen in getting to involved in either taking on odds on shots or backing them unless there are really strong grounds to do so.

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

24.1.17 Monbeg begs for compensation.



Fingerontheswitch has not reached anyway near the level he was as a hurdler and ultimately has been disappointing really. He will surely win one of these races and it appears today may be the day if his price stays sround this level. I feel there are much better 9/4 shots. We cannot rely on him. If I was going to back this for the win I would rather bet Captain Mowbray in the previous race at least he has solid looking level form and it is here at the course. At the oods I would back neither for the win and if they stay tight in the market adopt the drifter method on both, that is a far safer option on 2 shaky looking fancied horses.


I like this horse here we have 3 solid runs and let us hope he can turn up here no worse for the bring down @ Aintree.
The horse did absolutely nothing wrong as The fresh prince fell and brought down Monbeg. The only slight concern was the horse took a right belt under the chin from another runner while he was down, it was nothing to serious but I hope it has not tarnished the horse. We need to give him a chance here as long as we do not encounter the dreaded drift and he stays below 6.4 then maybe connections will be looking for some kind of compensation here, let us hope it is the win. A bold show must happen as long as this horse stays solid in the market.



This looks a straight duel between Sister Sibyl and Carn Spindle. There is very little between them on paper apart from experience jumping the hurdles.


I cannot really look past LaVaticane here Timeform appear to agree and all this will do is compress the price. Absolutely no VALUE will be offer here as the world and his dog follow the timeform top rated. I may be tempted to stay this side of 4s and put an offer in @ 3.95 see if get matched, then work from there.

MOONBEG RIVER is my horse I like today

Monday, 23 January 2017




This looks a perfect race to follow the money it is a 3 horse race according to the betting. We can eliminate the drifter near the off I am hopeful Gray day is left as I am not so keen on this one so I would pick 1 of the other 2 Back to Thatch or The Bay Oak..


I do like Timoteo here. I will see if he remains confident in the market. Everything points in the direction of a good run from this one.


Any money for African Gold would be very significant. I do think though the engine has gone on this horse. All the signs are this horse looks gone. Money will be a big sign on this horse, as if he retains any ability he could smash this field to bits. I expect this to drift. The horse to beat her using logic appears to be Whisky Chaser, but he looks poor value currently I would accept nothing less than 4.5 on this one.


We bet Cabragh last time and it won really well, this is a very likeable horse and has done everything asked.
The horse that caught my eye here is ROLLING THUNDER I consider him to be the best bet on this card.
On watching the replay you can see when this horse jumps the last fence he is still full of energy, there was definitely more in the tank to give and he was very generous on the run in, I think whoever beats this will need to be good and at the top of their game.



Lady Buttons. I think the last run @ the course looks pretty decent. She is the one I am looking @ here.


There is a lot of early confidence behind Maxed out King. I spent no time on this as it is very short.


I have timed both No Planning and Bigirononhiship from the 3rd last fence Timeform have the ground stated as Soft.

No Planning      36.93
BigIrononhiship 37.90

This for me is significant especially when No planning was forcing the pace. This looks a great bet for me today but that is only my opinion. My best bet @ Newcastle I hope this stays solid in the market.


This looks a dodgy race to me, I will view this from a trading view only the horse I would trade in play is Rhymers Stone.


No real opinion here the early market is supporting Nomoreblackjack, however no liquidity so no real thoughts here.

There are 2 horses that really are high on my list    15.10 No Planning   15.20 Rolling Thunder.

Sunday, 22 January 2017

22.1.17. Veinard to gain compensation.

Not much to write about today.



Everything appears to have run in the race won by That's a Wrap. I have a problem with this horse in that if he win's today he may well have to pass at least half this field to do so. He certainly could do it again and I would suggest if you are backing this one you should back him in running @ 14+ you really should get matched this one is not for me. I am going to side Veinard that was runner up to That's a Wrap.
As long as this horse can arrive here in the same form he should at very least have a decent track position so I would be looking to clear my stake @ 9+ for a free bet, and maybe strike again @ 4+ for a green screen. This is not a race to be looking to be making fortunes on for sure so I think we should be keeping the powder pretty dry.


I feel the winner will come from the top 3 in the betting currently. I have run a few filters and looked @ various ratings. I will take 2 against the field here Bentelimar & Stella Nation. Again this is a really challenging race certaintly not for the faint hearted, I feel I could pick 8 here and still miss the winner.


Visually when watching the races of Bakmaj and Imperial Way there can be no doubting that Bakmaj certainly looks much more impressive, granted this is was a flat race and he did not have the incovienence of having to jump any hurdles so thing's may have been different if this was the case. Today obviously this is a flat race so maybe I am over complicating thing's by not just going with this horse. I am fairly confident I can get a good run for my money in IMPERIAL WAY, the horse would appear to not have a change of gear so I am hopeful today this horse will remain handy and just grind out a win here from the 3f marker and just keep going which means something would hopefully need a good turn of foot to beat him.

Saturday, 21 January 2017

21.1.17 Quench that Thirst



HEATH HUNTER. I am a little flimsy on this horse, I am hopeful the engine has not gone, once Pipe's horses start going down hill they can very quickly become very disappointing. I am hopefulthis is not the case with this fellow today. This time last year he was in the 130's running well. I will give this a chance as long as the market does not tell us otherwise.


SPLASH OF GINGE. Maybe he has rediscovered himself as fairly decent hurdler again. I feel bringing him back here he is worth a go to dive a great account of himself.



THIRSTY WORK. I really like the last run of this horse. He set off and alway's stayed handy in the final 3f he just ground it out, another run like that and he will be a big contender here.


I believe Arbre De Vie has to lose this race in my opinion. However that is stating the obvious.


I would want to check the markets but  Boher Call catches the eye. This tentative, I would not want to be looking to this race to bail myself out of a hole. If we are losing at this point this is not a race to be looking for salvation.

If I had to pick out 1 horse today my substantial gut is pointing towards  THIRSTY WORK

Friday, 20 January 2017


It is Friday and let's celebrate with some weekend cash!!! Finger's crossed.



No point dwelling to long on this, Robinsfirth looks the horse to beat here.
 Course form can be invaluable here and there appears to be a little encouragement in the market for Definite Outcome he is capable of coming home respectably in this type of ground this could pose value if the confidence continues right through till post time.


Again no point discussing this race too long the fave looks like he has to lose this race. I would rather look elsewhere than go with the majority. If you bet this or the above go 1 point above the max trade then at least if it wins you will get some kind of return on your investment. This looks a very solid fave I certainly would not be laying this fellow today time and again Chepstow form is the best form to come here with.


This is a very tough race to start trying to pick winners out, but I do really like Allchilled out. At the moment using the money scale we would be looking to get 6.8 on this horse. That still looks pretty meagre when we frame up the race, it is a hard race. I would demand 8+ or I would rather look elsewhere. As long as this does not drift this will be my plan here and if I could get 8s that will mean I can sell off @ 4s and still leave some winnings on for a nice free bet.


I am really drawn here towards William Money I really hope this horse at the very least stay's steady in the market as I feel he could run a smashing race today, we do need to have a little leap of faith as his chasing form does look pretty bad in all honesty. My hope and it is HOPE is the hurdle race may just have sharpened him up. It is a a flimsy idea and I would completely understand if you discarded this horse. I just have a niggle that he may run a belter today. We do need to see no drift though otherwise scrap him.


I did not like Sports Barrow, but then I did not like anything. I would rather lay this all day every day, but that is a fool's advice. So I cannot give any here. Use the drifter method and have a fiver if you must bet.
Danceintothe light rarely runs a bad race here, so maybe he is worth a look I have no view on the race.


Mister Don. I do not fancy this much but do feel it could run a decent race, I am very concerned about his previous track encounters, I just do not think he likes it here. I am unsure on this, I think we can find less risky things to put our money on.


Appy Days has to lose this. I have seen better 2.2 shot's but this looks placed here to win. Again if you must bet this demand 3.5 thats a point above the max trade for money currently, if it goes bigger before the off then you can swerve it.


I do like Project Bluebook here, I like the Jockey I like the trainer I like the fact they are bringing this horse back here again after a good win. It again is a hard race to be picking the winner in, £491 went through @ 5s. So I would be looking for 6 using my rather crude 1 point above max. This will then if matched give me a little scope to angle on a free bet again at least. I feel we could even get more than 6s 7s looks reasonable in this race. The other horse in here that alway's runs well @ Muss is Old Johnny Delta, I think if you are backing to lay then this old boy is a genuine old friend. I do not think he will win this race but I think he will and is capable of giving these a good run for their money.


I like Chestnut Ben. I will try and bet this today I will not accept anything less than 8s more like 10s would be more realistic. I do not like betting old horses as they are simply not as good as the youngsters. This would be a minimum stakes bet and I would be certainly getting all my stake back quite early if I can get matched @ 10s.+. Small stakes. Age is not on Ben's side.


Pulpitarian. This is a bad race I cannot say many positives. I liked the Kelso run of this horse, so maybe it would be wise to wait and see if he returns to that track.


I would say this is a perfect race to use the drifter eliminator method.

Too many selections here today. If you nailed me to 1 horse I am quite keen on Project Bluebook. Good luck today I hope we can make a few quid to set up a great weekend.

Thursday, 19 January 2017

Drifter method

A few people have asked me to explain the Drifter Eliminator Method. Lets start from the begining I do it this way pen and paper because I am old and cannot figure out how to screenshot. Write down 10 minutes before a race the prices on the 1st 3 in the betting. 1 minute or as late as possible eliminate any runner that has shifted negatively in the market. This leaves 2 runners, I suggest at this point you have an idea of what you fancy and what you do not. I look @ all the usual probables, ground,trip,blah blah, I will not insult anyones intelligence here. I also look at raw Rp ratings and chuck a lower figure. You decide how you choose your horse we are all unique and subjective.

Next stage we need to know at what price we are backing, and at what price we are laying. I have been simply backing at 1 point bigger than the maximum traded price that has gone for more than £500. You find this information on the graph on betfair. This is your backing price. The laying price I have been doing the same 1 point less than the minimum traded price for £500.
I think this method is rather crude, and speaking with a very good trader and seeking ideas he came up with a % dependant on price. I feel this may be a much better method, although the simplistic 1 point method each way has yielded a fantastic return.

I have arranged to speak to a couple of people tomorrow to explain it, I am also a very visual learner myself and understand written instructions can be very complicated.

 The reason we stick to 1,2,3 in the betting is this is where the money flows through, that is my theory. Also we are jumping on the greed bandwagon. The majority of bettors will follow money off a cliff, we are doing the same, however we are insisting on the illusive "VALUE". We set these trades up before the race starts, but as close to the jump off as possible as we really want to chase the money. As the money chasers appear to follow on when the race is in progress.
 I have noticed this time and time again, a fancied horse drifts, it travels well in a race but its price stays unbelievably high.

 I did plan to put up the cards for tomorrow but I felt a need to write this. If it helps anyone great, if I have confused you more I am sorry. UPDATE this is still very much a work in progress I am thinking maybe 20% on price may be better and 40% on the minimum trade again these are figures that may need tuning it really is trial and error @ the moment.


Using the price drifter method yesterday and refusing to take any early prices appears to be the way forward. Kings Odyssey drifted to 7.04 betfair Starting price this is a little different to the 11/4 being offered best odds or a 26.67 % chance. Once this drifted to the above odds it had a 14.29 % Chance. I am convinced after this drift it had more like a 5% chance so the betfair odds should have been 20s or 19/1.
Get yourself familiar with these kind of sums and play these on the markets and very soon for small stakes you turn your betting around. I am still very much learning, and it is only through being honest and accepting change in my thought pattern that I can attempt to turn losing bets around. I am as guilty as the worst of us of placing bad bets, even yesterday I still placed a couple of bad bets. The great thing is controlling emotion and demanding value, if it is poor odds do not bet it!!! if it wins smile you were correct. So was the majority and that is why the odds were so bad.   http://www.bettingexpert.com/how-to/convert-odds#calc    that is the calculator I used if you know a much better one tell me, I will be grateful.

On with today.


13.20 The fave wil take all the beating here, it would be nice to see a big drift on this and it losing. I was looking for a little value in the race. The market needs to settle as all the cash is going through this fave, Shanroe In Milan catches the eye as a potential back to lay, this has run well @ Sedgefield twice and it was quite fancied last time it went out like a light. Watch the market and look at the chart on betfair I will be interested to see if he can make his presence felt here.

14.25 Upsanddowns I think this is a good bet today


Tambura is ok in this kind of grade if she can show no signs of any drifing this could run a nice race today, conditions look ok for her and I am looking out for this one.


13.40 Cadoudoff.
Lets see what the markets do, I think Walt personally is poor value. I would like to take it on.

Tough race this.. Dawson City deserves to be fave, you could just stop there and bet this. I liked a couple in here As de Fer catches the eye, the one I like is Cyclops. Watch the markets see where the money goes.

Wednesday, 18 January 2017

Keeping it very Simple.

I have been talking to as many respected "traders" or players. What ever you or I would like to call ourselves. Today lets just call ourselves traders as I am going to talk about a simple idea I had today that could not be more simplistic. I firmly believe if we keep adding rules we keep adding complications.
So 1 rule. We never place any money on a horse that has drifted. Drifting is subjective, also as I said earlier in a post and I have talked with respected traders, drifters do win. I believe they are bad bets but we are moving on. Kings Oddesey today was a prime example, nothing is more pleasing when you have not bet the horse and everything you preach comes true.

What I did today was easy. You can make it even easier if 15 minutes before the race copy down the prices of the 1st 3 in the betting. 30 seconds before the race eliminate the drifted price and make your choice which horse you will place your money on. Which ever method you use. Look at the traded price Maximum and go 1 point higher or what ever figure you feel comfortable with, but ask for value. Today I did 1 point for simplicity.

Then look @ the lowest the horse has traded @ and again go 1 point or whatever you are willing to go, the lower the bigger risk of course. Today I was simplicity man and I just stuck to the 1 point lower.

The results were superb today and I can honestly say I had no stress no worries. Up to now I have made over £40.00 profit with just £5 stakes on the win and £10.50 on the lay side.

1 Rule. No Fuss. I have no idea if it will continue to work. The reasoning as to why we stick with the 1st 3 in the betting is liquidity and price movements in play, this is where the concentration of money is moving.

I must add which I forgot use £500 as the markers of top and lowest price...

Taking an early price or waiting for betfair market confidence.

The subject of value will alway's be problematic and to be honest nothing more than a calculated guess for most of us who choose to bet. I am starting after years and years of suffering now starting to believe strongly in not taking an early price. Even a Best Odds Price. I have a good friend of mine David Peat his blog is certainly worth looking at every day http://profilesforracing.blogspot.fr/ and I was speaking to him around the issue's of value a few months back. I decided at this point to do a little bit of research around drifting horses and price reflected to chance. The conclusion was actually quite jaw dropping. If your horse significantly drift's on betfair your chance's of winning the race statistically, is dramatically reduced. I am still guilty of being tempted by early BOG price's, I am old scholl hard wired. I am just now not doing it anymore!! I would rather take a reduced price (odd's) and have a little confidence in the horse, or at least no drift.

I am not saying or stating here drifter's never win, they do of course. I am saying though with confidence statistically and chance converted to %  is by comparison bad, if you do not believe me go and look at the stats yourself.

 Another site that I am sure everyone who read's this will be well aware of is Phill Hayes http://www.winningwarlock.com/     This is a another brilliant site and should be on your favourites for sure. This is the site to go to if you are going to back and lay off in running. I actually believe longterm this is now the only way to bet longterm, and if you are not doing this you need to seriously ask yourself why you are not doing it.   Anyway thanks for taking the time to read this, I hope like me you will be able to resist the early bird price that looks so good. I know I will be suckered into taking a price again in the future, only to see my horse drift and the wave of dread come over me again. Another place you must go is Xchange Trading Signals    on facebook.

Tuesday, 17 January 2017


Market Rasen


I do feel this is quite a tough race, but I do like Brian Boranha. I cannot make up my mind if 3/1 is value. This is irrevelent anyway as I am not taking early prices anymore I would rather take 9/4 knowing that market confidence is behind the horse than be on a drifter. So we can wait and see what the Bf markets do with this one. Peter Niven appears to be having a rough time his last winner was back in November. If it drifts I may well leave this alone. That goes for all my selections now in the week, that is how strongly I feel about this. Backing to lay is slightly different, but the win element, I stand by what I said in the earlier rant.


I think this is a super race. Before I start I really do think Cusheen Bridge could green up at a fancy price. He will surely be outclassed as it looks on paper to be a hot race. I hope I am correct & I may be tempted to just have a couple of quid on him if he is ridiculous odds, but it is asking to much to expect anything other than a good effort at some point and that being reflected in his in play price sell him off and have a free bet.
 The horse I am very keen on here is KINGS ODYSSEY. As long as his fall last time has not dented his confidence I am sure this will give a good account of himself here tomorrow, the horse appears to have a little bit of class about him, the old me would have steamed in @ 11/4  or 3.95 on Betfair. Again I want to see if this holds firm, I am looking forward to watching this race the winner will be smart and I believe worth following.


I am a little unsure what the ground will be like @ Newbury tomorrow. I will go Soft and include Good/Soft. We cannot be sure.  
I think this is a really hard card. The one horse I quite liked @ a price was Bob Tucker in the 14.55 He may be worth a second look if we can get a good double figure price on him. He could be one to look at in the place market. See what the market thinks of this horse.

Monday, 16 January 2017

Tuesday 17.1.17


I have found this card rather challenging, for one reason or another I could not confidently find a selection. There was always a question mark over most of the runners. I do think I have found a horse that has come through all the filters and should run a decent race if he turns up and is trying.

16.00 Surprise Vendor. This currently is widely available @ 9/2 Bog. This appears fair enough and maybe this could be a little bigger on betfair tomorrow.
That unfortunately is the only horse I can put up for Ayr.


More of a back to lay really here for me is Titch Strider. I think we do need to have a leap of faith here if you are willing to put your hard earned cash on this fellow. Also I cannot really recommend him as an each-way or a place bet. I think this would solely be a back to lay as he may just run well at some point and trade sub 9s in my view. As I am typing this I am talking myself out of the horse, his form is poor. He has sailed through all the filters I put up though. We have to go back to June, that is when the trainer last had a winner. I will leave this up to you if you fancy a punt. Minimum stakes here. As you can see I am not very confident with this one.


Bobble Boru. I much prefer giving weight and the horse having a decent rating although this is poor grade really, the selection is rated 16lbs better than Heaven sent on the ratings I use. Now we obviously we adjust these for weight, now you may well argue with me that Heaven Sent gets +18 on adjustment, I cannot argue with anyone on this matter this is fact. I have and continue to make the mistake of using this guide and getting beaten by the better horse. I am now starting to think we are better sticking with the classier horse as the lighter weighted horse invarably do not run faster with less weight. I may look foolish here @ 14.10 but I will stick with my theory, even though in this ground weight should have even more effect.

Somerset Lias. This has come through all the filters this looks to have a decent chance of running a good race. This pulled up last time out and this could be why the price is slightly bigger. All the numbers suggest this could run a big race tomorrow.

Everything suggests that Casper King should take all the beating here. This is not for me it is too short, but it will be good to see it win well then at least we know the numbers are correct.

Sunday, 15 January 2017

16.1.17 Ayr


This looks like the fave here should be Fairlee Grey. I personally am not keen on Loose ends I think this needs to find something here. I will look at this race as a small stakes Back to lay in running play, I would choose Craiganboy to do the job and at the likely odds this gives us a little bit of scope to try and take a small profit out of this race.


I feel at the odds Beyondtemptation is also another attractive back to lay bet. I think she is highly unlikely to win the race, but she could trade well below her price tag. Currently 28/1 Bog it will be interesting to see if she is available at 40+ on betfair tomorrow. It could be worth seeing what is offered on her on 1st 3 home.


I consider BRYDEN BOY quite a good tomorrow @ Ayr. My concern is Jennie Candlish who is a very astute placer of her horses is 0-5 with her hurdlers on the track. This satistic is slightly off putting, but not enough to put me off having a tilt at this one.


13.25 No surprises here that No Never sails through all the filters set. I see no point in taking him on or backing him really at the odds. There are surely better 6/4 shots than this. We can watch this and be happy if we are correct. If it loses we can smile.

Very Live would be the selection here, but again the odds to risk make it a risky proposition. There are others in here that pose question marks and ultimately it is a very poor race to be risking our hard earned cash.


American Life. Here we have a well handicapped horse on all old form, he has proved he still has abilty and this may be worth a small bet as either a back to lay or keeping this as a win bet.
When ever possible I will post up my tips on here and try and explain why I feel these horses will run well. I will not just give out selections as any fool can do this. Today I will use my post from yesterday in future they will be printed here first and then maybe placed elsewhere.

After the success of earlier let us try and have a go at this good quality Fairyhouse race.

We need to trim this field down. 1st filter 12 months. This unfortunately only removes 3 runners. We need to go further and slice this field up.
2nd filter 18 Months Soft to Heavy ground this brings us to a hotlist of just 6 runners. We will work from these and see if we are lucky enough to snag the winner.

Ball D'arc. Draycott Place. Dysios Day's Hotel. Baltimore Rock. Mister Hotelier.

Next we will Racing Post rate these.

Adjusted for weight this all looks very tight.

Baltimore Rock 153
Ball D'arc 153
Dysios 153
Draycott Place 152
Day's Hotel 151
Mister Hotelier 113// Eliminated.

We are now left with 4 runners's and now it is proving very tough to seperate them, this is clearly on paper a very tight handicap. I think we need to widen the filters here and go on finer detail's to try and isolate the winner. 12 Runners +18 month's is the next filter we will use.

This takes us down to 2 clear runners @ the 70+ barrier.

Dysio's 72
Draycott Place 70

I will include here Ball D'arc 64 although he is now on the cut list... Next Filter we will use will be the recent form 6 months Filter.

Ball D'arc 79. 77.
Draycott Place 72. 69.
Dysios 54. 30 Eliminated.

I can see why Ball D'arc is favourite, this is the form horse, but @ 4/1 the very best price available looks poor value when we take all the figure's above. We cannot back this at these odds. DRAYCOTT PLACE available @ 22/1 at a couple of the bookmakers looks much better value, this is our pick for the race.