Thursday, 19 January 2017

Drifter method

A few people have asked me to explain the Drifter Eliminator Method. Lets start from the begining I do it this way pen and paper because I am old and cannot figure out how to screenshot. Write down 10 minutes before a race the prices on the 1st 3 in the betting. 1 minute or as late as possible eliminate any runner that has shifted negatively in the market. This leaves 2 runners, I suggest at this point you have an idea of what you fancy and what you do not. I look @ all the usual probables, ground,trip,blah blah, I will not insult anyones intelligence here. I also look at raw Rp ratings and chuck a lower figure. You decide how you choose your horse we are all unique and subjective.

Next stage we need to know at what price we are backing, and at what price we are laying. I have been simply backing at 1 point bigger than the maximum traded price that has gone for more than £500. You find this information on the graph on betfair. This is your backing price. The laying price I have been doing the same 1 point less than the minimum traded price for £500.
I think this method is rather crude, and speaking with a very good trader and seeking ideas he came up with a % dependant on price. I feel this may be a much better method, although the simplistic 1 point method each way has yielded a fantastic return.

I have arranged to speak to a couple of people tomorrow to explain it, I am also a very visual learner myself and understand written instructions can be very complicated.

 The reason we stick to 1,2,3 in the betting is this is where the money flows through, that is my theory. Also we are jumping on the greed bandwagon. The majority of bettors will follow money off a cliff, we are doing the same, however we are insisting on the illusive "VALUE". We set these trades up before the race starts, but as close to the jump off as possible as we really want to chase the money. As the money chasers appear to follow on when the race is in progress.
 I have noticed this time and time again, a fancied horse drifts, it travels well in a race but its price stays unbelievably high.

 I did plan to put up the cards for tomorrow but I felt a need to write this. If it helps anyone great, if I have confused you more I am sorry. UPDATE this is still very much a work in progress I am thinking maybe 20% on price may be better and 40% on the minimum trade again these are figures that may need tuning it really is trial and error @ the moment.

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