Friday, 3 February 2017

4.2.14 UPDATE



This is a straight match between Couer De Lion & Rather Be. If I had to choose I would go with Rather Be.
However I would want to see confidence in the market and I would also need to be offered at least 2/1+
That would leave me having to bet the horse in play. This may be an option in the race.
Couer was a disappointment here last time, that does not instil confidence. I would be wary taking short odds on this one. He is though clearly better than that display, that leaves a big doubt.
 As it stands the best book on odds checker is 114% when we consider this is a basic match I see no real value at the odds. Maybe if they both ease a little we could take another look at this but that seems unlikely.



A really nice novice chase here I think we will see these horses again @ the Festival but they may well be down the field.  Top Notch won @ Ascot but we cannot gain any worth from the effort as we could not see a thing. All I will do here is use the proximity of other horses gauged on ability. I think he needs to find a bit on the selection. La Prezien is more dangerous I liked his win @ Exeter this must be shortlisted and has win credentials.  Clan Des Obeaux blew his chance @ the 2nd last fence @ Cheltenham. What really convinced me this horse is really genuine is what happened after that error, the horse just rolled up his sleeves and came back. He could not make up the ground lost but he looked pretty good in his attempt. I think this horse warrants a good bet in this race.

I will leave the rest of Sandown as it looks a wee bit tough.

I spent ages going through Wetherby I could not find a thing here.




Every winner of the last 5 years of this race has lined up in the Triump Hurdle.In fact 6 of the last 7 have managed to line up. None of them have actually won the race. They have though managed 3rd place on a couple of occasions. Project Bluebook has to beat 2 well respected big yards here. I think he will do just that. The manner of his last win here was nothing but exceptional for Musselburghs standards, this is no disrespect to Musselburgh. Hendersons horse will need to be very good first time over hurdles to beat the selection here. Maybe he is good enough, he was a very good flat horse, we know he will be very well schooled and certainly fit to run. If this were a different track today he may well have been enough to scare me off but I will take this on.  So we now come to Fidux, I have a bit of a problem with this horse. The Catterick run put simply is not good enough. We then have his Kempton run, well that was much better I still feel it is a little under the selections efforts. The thing is the horse is 2/2 so he is obviously very dangerous, winners win again, also they say never stop backing a horse until it loses. I hope it is today.




I am going against a very strong trend here, Willie Mullins has won this race for the last 5 years and he has 2 really well fancied horses in here. I personally cannot bet Pravalaguna, she has not done enough so you are backing what she likely is? Can she win, of course Mullins is a genius and he wins with these sorts all the time. I use form based methods so She is well below the selection on racecourse figures.
This leaves me with Asthuria to beat I have mine a little in front of her.
Maybe I am being foolish here taking on double handed Mullins in a race he farms.

No comments:

Post a Comment