Sunday, 15 January 2017

When ever possible I will post up my tips on here and try and explain why I feel these horses will run well. I will not just give out selections as any fool can do this. Today I will use my post from yesterday in future they will be printed here first and then maybe placed elsewhere.

After the success of earlier let us try and have a go at this good quality Fairyhouse race.

We need to trim this field down. 1st filter 12 months. This unfortunately only removes 3 runners. We need to go further and slice this field up.
2nd filter 18 Months Soft to Heavy ground this brings us to a hotlist of just 6 runners. We will work from these and see if we are lucky enough to snag the winner.

Ball D'arc. Draycott Place. Dysios Day's Hotel. Baltimore Rock. Mister Hotelier.

Next we will Racing Post rate these.

Adjusted for weight this all looks very tight.

Baltimore Rock 153
Ball D'arc 153
Dysios 153
Draycott Place 152
Day's Hotel 151
Mister Hotelier 113// Eliminated.

We are now left with 4 runners's and now it is proving very tough to seperate them, this is clearly on paper a very tight handicap. I think we need to widen the filters here and go on finer detail's to try and isolate the winner. 12 Runners +18 month's is the next filter we will use.

This takes us down to 2 clear runners @ the 70+ barrier.

Dysio's 72
Draycott Place 70

I will include here Ball D'arc 64 although he is now on the cut list... Next Filter we will use will be the recent form 6 months Filter.

Ball D'arc 79. 77.
Draycott Place 72. 69.
Dysios 54. 30 Eliminated.

I can see why Ball D'arc is favourite, this is the form horse, but @ 4/1 the very best price available looks poor value when we take all the figure's above. We cannot back this at these odds. DRAYCOTT PLACE available @ 22/1 at a couple of the bookmakers looks much better value, this is our pick for the race.

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