Monday, 16 January 2017

Tuesday 17.1.17


I have found this card rather challenging, for one reason or another I could not confidently find a selection. There was always a question mark over most of the runners. I do think I have found a horse that has come through all the filters and should run a decent race if he turns up and is trying.

16.00 Surprise Vendor. This currently is widely available @ 9/2 Bog. This appears fair enough and maybe this could be a little bigger on betfair tomorrow.
That unfortunately is the only horse I can put up for Ayr.


More of a back to lay really here for me is Titch Strider. I think we do need to have a leap of faith here if you are willing to put your hard earned cash on this fellow. Also I cannot really recommend him as an each-way or a place bet. I think this would solely be a back to lay as he may just run well at some point and trade sub 9s in my view. As I am typing this I am talking myself out of the horse, his form is poor. He has sailed through all the filters I put up though. We have to go back to June, that is when the trainer last had a winner. I will leave this up to you if you fancy a punt. Minimum stakes here. As you can see I am not very confident with this one.


Bobble Boru. I much prefer giving weight and the horse having a decent rating although this is poor grade really, the selection is rated 16lbs better than Heaven sent on the ratings I use. Now we obviously we adjust these for weight, now you may well argue with me that Heaven Sent gets +18 on adjustment, I cannot argue with anyone on this matter this is fact. I have and continue to make the mistake of using this guide and getting beaten by the better horse. I am now starting to think we are better sticking with the classier horse as the lighter weighted horse invarably do not run faster with less weight. I may look foolish here @ 14.10 but I will stick with my theory, even though in this ground weight should have even more effect.

Somerset Lias. This has come through all the filters this looks to have a decent chance of running a good race. This pulled up last time out and this could be why the price is slightly bigger. All the numbers suggest this could run a big race tomorrow.

Everything suggests that Casper King should take all the beating here. This is not for me it is too short, but it will be good to see it win well then at least we know the numbers are correct.

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