The subject of value will alway's be problematic and to be honest nothing more than a calculated guess for most of us who choose to bet. I am starting after years and years of suffering now starting to believe strongly in not taking an early price. Even a Best Odds Price. I have a good friend of mine David Peat his blog is certainly worth looking at every day http://profilesforracing.blogspot.fr/ and I was speaking to him around the issue's of value a few months back. I decided at this point to do a little bit of research around drifting horses and price reflected to chance. The conclusion was actually quite jaw dropping. If your horse significantly drift's on betfair your chance's of winning the race statistically, is dramatically reduced. I am still guilty of being tempted by early BOG price's, I am old scholl hard wired. I am just now not doing it anymore!! I would rather take a reduced price (odd's) and have a little confidence in the horse, or at least no drift.
I am not saying or stating here drifter's never win, they do of course. I am saying though with confidence statistically and chance converted to % is by comparison bad, if you do not believe me go and look at the stats yourself.
Another site that I am sure everyone who read's this will be well aware of is Phill Hayes http://www.winningwarlock.com/ This is a another brilliant site and should be on your favourites for sure. This is the site to go to if you are going to back and lay off in running. I actually believe longterm this is now the only way to bet longterm, and if you are not doing this you need to seriously ask yourself why you are not doing it. Anyway thanks for taking the time to read this, I hope like me you will be able to resist the early bird price that looks so good. I know I will be suckered into taking a price again in the future, only to see my horse drift and the wave of dread come over me again. Another place you must go is Xchange Trading Signals on facebook.